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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Aston Villa

S U U T U

1–1

Full-time

Brentford

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 18. · Brentford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	7	5	1	1	+4	16
2	Newcastle	7	5	0	2	+12	15
3	Barnsley	7	5	0	2	+9	15
4	Norwich	7	4	2	1	+3	14
5	Birmingham	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Ipswich	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Sheffield Weds	7	3	2	2	-1	11
10	Reading	7	3	2	2	-2	11
11	Brentford	6	3	1	2	+3	10
12	Bristol City	7	3	1	3	+1	10
13	Nott'm Forest	6	3	1	2	+0	10
14	QPR	7	3	1	3	-3	10
15	Burton Albion	7	2	3	2	+1	9
16	Wolves	7	2	3	2	-1	9
17	Leeds	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Aston Villa	6	1	3	2	+0	6
19	Preston	7	2	0	5	+0	6
20	Derby	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	Cardiff	7	1	2	4	-6	5
22	Rotherham	6	1	2	3	-9	5
23	Wigan	7	1	1	5	-2	4
24	Blackburn	7	0	2	5	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Barnsley	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Nott'm Forest	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Huddersfield	3	3	0	0	+3	9
6	Sheffield Weds	4	3	0	1	+1	9
7	Reading	4	2	2	0	+2	8
8	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	7
10	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Burton Albion	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+3	5
14	Rotherham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
15	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-2	5
17	Wigan	3	1	1	1	+2	4
18	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
19	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-1	4
20	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	4
21	Preston	4	1	0	3	+0	3
22	Cardiff	3	1	0	2	-2	3
23	Derby	4	0	2	2	-3	2
24	Blackburn	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Huddersfield	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Barnsley	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	QPR	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Ipswich	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Brentford	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Preston	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	Burton Albion	4	0	3	1	-1	3
14	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Reading	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-4	2
20	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-3	1
21	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-4	1
22	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-5	1
23	Wigan	4	0	0	4	-4	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.