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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Aston Villa

T T T T T

0–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 15%

22%

Points per game

0,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

2 Shots 9

0 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	36	22	11	3	+30	77
2	Tottenham	36	19	13	4	+39	70
3	Arsenal	36	19	10	7	+25	67
4	Man City	36	19	7	10	+30	64
5	Man United	36	18	9	9	+13	63
6	West Ham	35	15	14	6	+17	59
7	Southampton	36	16	9	11	+14	57
8	Liverpool	35	15	10	10	+11	55
9	Chelsea	35	12	12	11	+7	48
10	Stoke	36	13	9	14	-14	48
11	Everton	35	10	14	11	+6	44
12	Watford	35	12	8	15	-6	44
13	Swansea	36	11	10	15	-13	43
14	West Brom	36	10	11	15	-14	41
15	Bournemouth	36	11	8	17	-20	41
16	Crystal Palace	36	10	9	17	-10	39
17	Newcastle	36	8	9	19	-25	33
18	Sunderland	35	7	11	17	-18	32
19	Norwich	36	8	7	21	-27	31
20	Aston Villa	36	3	7	26	-45	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	6	1	+15	39
2	Man United	18	11	5	2	+16	38
3	Man City	18	12	1	5	+26	37
4	Arsenal	18	11	4	3	+16	37
5	Tottenham	18	10	6	2	+21	36
6	Southampton	18	10	3	5	+14	33
7	West Ham	17	8	7	2	+10	31
8	Swansea	18	8	5	5	+0	29
9	Liverpool	17	7	7	3	+9	28
10	Newcastle	18	6	7	5	+4	25
11	Stoke	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Chelsea	18	5	8	5	+2	23
13	Watford	18	6	5	7	+1	23
14	West Brom	18	6	4	8	-6	22
15	Everton	18	5	5	8	+2	20
16	Norwich	18	5	5	8	-6	20
17	Bournemouth	18	5	4	9	-11	19
18	Sunderland	17	4	6	7	-1	18
19	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-5	18
20	Aston Villa	18	2	4	12	-21	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+15	38
2	Tottenham	18	9	7	2	+18	34
3	Arsenal	18	8	6	4	+9	30
4	West Ham	18	7	7	4	+7	28
5	Man City	18	7	6	5	+4	27
6	Liverpool	18	8	3	7	+2	27
7	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	25
8	Man United	18	7	4	7	-3	25
9	Everton	17	5	9	3	+4	24
10	Southampton	18	6	6	6	+0	24
11	Stoke	18	6	5	7	-11	23
12	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-9	22
13	Crystal Palace	18	5	6	7	-5	21
14	Watford	17	6	3	8	-7	21
15	West Brom	18	4	7	7	-8	19
16	Swansea	18	3	5	10	-13	14
17	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-17	14
18	Norwich	18	3	2	13	-21	11
19	Newcastle	18	2	2	14	-29	8
20	Aston Villa	18	1	3	14	-24	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.