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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Arsenal

S T S U T

4–1

Full-time

Fulham

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 35%

55%

15%

Points per game

1,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

65%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

80%

50%

Average goals

3,6

3,1

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

4 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Fulham 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	20	17	3	0	+40	54
2	Man City	20	15	2	3	+38	47
3	Tottenham	20	15	0	5	+22	45
4	Chelsea	20	13	4	3	+22	43
5	Arsenal	20	11	5	4	+12	38
6	Man United	20	10	5	5	+9	35
7	Leicester	21	9	4	8	+2	31
8	Wolves	20	8	5	7	+0	29
9	Watford	20	8	4	8	-1	28
10	Everton	21	7	6	8	+0	27
11	West Ham	20	8	3	9	-3	27
12	Bournemouth	20	8	2	10	-9	26
13	Brighton	20	7	4	9	-5	25
14	Crystal Palace	20	5	4	11	-9	19
15	Newcastle	20	4	6	10	-12	18
16	Cardiff	20	5	3	12	-19	18
17	Southampton	20	3	6	11	-17	15
18	Burnley	20	4	3	13	-22	15
19	Fulham	20	3	5	12	-25	14
20	Huddersfield	20	2	4	14	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
3	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Man United	10	6	3	1	+8	21
6	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+9	18
7	Brighton	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Everton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
9	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+2	17
10	Watford	11	5	1	5	-2	16
11	Leicester	10	4	2	4	+2	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-2	13
14	Cardiff	10	4	1	5	-7	13
15	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
16	Burnley	10	3	1	6	-8	10
17	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-4	9
18	Southampton	10	1	5	4	-6	8
19	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-8	7
20	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	0	2	+13	27
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+11	22
4	Man City	10	6	2	2	+12	20
5	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+0	17
6	Arsenal	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+1	15
8	Man United	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Watford	9	3	3	3	+1	12
11	Newcastle	10	2	5	3	-4	11
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Everton	10	2	3	5	-2	9
14	Bournemouth	10	3	0	7	-11	9
15	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Southampton	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-12	5
18	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-13	5
19	Burnley	10	1	2	7	-14	5
20	Fulham	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.