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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Arsenal

T T S T T

2–2

Full-time

Man City

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

2,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 59%

56%

61%

Points per game

1,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

70%

64%

Both score Ø 66%

70%

61%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,1

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 8

5 Offside 6

8 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 6. · Man City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	29	22	3	4	+37	69
2	Tottenham	29	18	8	3	+36	62
3	Liverpool	30	17	8	5	+27	59
4	Man City	28	17	6	5	+24	57
5	Man United	28	14	11	3	+19	53
6	Arsenal	27	15	5	7	+22	50
7	Everton	30	14	8	8	+19	50
8	West Brom	30	12	8	10	+1	44
9	Stoke	30	9	9	12	-11	36
10	Southampton	28	9	7	12	-3	34
11	Bournemouth	30	9	7	14	-12	34
12	Watford	29	9	7	13	-14	34
13	Leicester	29	9	6	14	-12	33
14	West Ham	30	9	6	15	-13	33
15	Burnley	30	9	5	16	-13	32
16	Crystal Palace	29	9	4	16	-9	31
17	Swansea	30	8	4	18	-27	28
18	Hull	30	7	6	17	-31	27
19	Middlesbrough	29	4	11	14	-13	23
20	Sunderland	29	5	5	19	-27	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	15	13	2	0	+27	41
2	Chelsea	14	12	0	2	+27	36
3	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+25	36
4	Everton	15	10	4	1	+24	34
5	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+13	29
6	West Brom	15	9	2	4	+9	29
7	Burnley	15	9	2	4	+8	29
8	Man City	14	7	6	1	+10	27
9	Leicester	15	8	3	4	+6	27
10	Man United	15	6	8	1	+10	26
11	Bournemouth	15	7	3	5	+3	24
12	Stoke	15	6	5	4	+2	23
13	Watford	15	6	4	5	-1	22
14	Hull	15	6	4	5	-3	22
15	Southampton	13	5	4	4	+0	19
16	Swansea	15	5	3	7	-9	18
17	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-10	18
18	Crystal Palace	14	4	1	9	-5	13
19	Middlesbrough	14	3	4	7	-5	13
20	Sunderland	15	3	4	8	-12	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+10	33
2	Man City	14	10	0	4	+14	30
3	Man United	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Liverpool	15	6	5	4	+2	23
5	Arsenal	14	6	3	5	+9	21
6	Tottenham	14	5	6	3	+9	21
7	Crystal Palace	15	5	3	7	-4	18
8	Everton	15	4	4	7	-5	16
9	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-3	15
10	Southampton	15	4	3	8	-3	15
11	West Brom	15	3	6	6	-8	15
12	Stoke	15	3	4	8	-13	13
13	Watford	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Middlesbrough	15	1	7	7	-8	10
15	Bournemouth	15	2	4	9	-15	10
16	Swansea	15	3	1	11	-18	10
17	Sunderland	14	2	1	11	-15	7
18	Leicester	14	1	3	10	-18	6
19	Hull	15	1	2	12	-28	5
20	Burnley	15	0	3	12	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.