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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Arsenal

T S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Watford

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

9 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 6. · Watford 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Man City	6	5	1	0	+16	16
3	Chelsea	6	5	1	0	+10	16
4	Watford	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+5	12
6	Arsenal	6	4	0	2	+3	12
7	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	Man United	7	3	1	3	-2	10
9	Leicester	6	3	0	3	+1	9
10	Wolves	6	2	3	1	+0	9
11	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
13	Everton	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	Brighton	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Fulham	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Newcastle	6	0	2	4	-4	2
19	Huddersfield	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Cardiff	6	0	2	4	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Watford	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Wolves	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Everton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Man United	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Burnley	3	1	0	2	+0	3
16	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-6	1
20	Newcastle	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Man United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Watford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Wolves	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Southampton	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-5	3
14	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Everton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.