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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Arsenal

S S U S S

1–2

Full-time

Watford

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 46%

64%

27%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

68%

50%

Both score Ø 64%

68%

59%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

73% Possession 27%

20 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 2. · Watford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	22	18	1	3	+32	55
2	Arsenal	22	14	5	3	+27	47
3	Tottenham	22	13	7	2	+29	46
4	Liverpool	22	13	6	3	+24	45
5	Man City	22	13	4	5	+15	43
6	Man United	22	11	8	3	+12	41
7	Everton	22	10	6	6	+10	36
8	West Brom	22	9	5	8	+2	32
9	Stoke	22	7	7	8	-6	28
10	West Ham	22	8	4	10	-7	28
11	Southampton	22	7	6	9	-4	27
12	Bournemouth	22	7	5	10	-7	26
13	Burnley	22	8	2	12	-9	26
14	Watford	22	6	6	10	-13	24
15	Leicester	22	5	6	11	-13	21
16	Middlesbrough	22	4	8	10	-7	20
17	Swansea	22	5	3	14	-25	18
18	Crystal Palace	22	4	4	14	-11	16
19	Hull	22	4	4	14	-27	16
20	Sunderland	22	4	3	15	-22	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	11	10	0	1	+24	30
2	Tottenham	11	9	2	0	+20	29
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+12	26
4	Burnley	12	8	1	3	+9	25
5	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+18	23
6	Everton	11	6	4	1	+12	22
7	Man City	11	6	4	1	+9	22
8	Man United	11	5	5	1	+8	20
9	West Brom	11	6	2	3	+7	20
10	Bournemouth	11	5	3	3	+4	18
11	Leicester	11	5	3	3	+3	18
12	Southampton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
13	West Ham	11	5	2	4	-4	17
14	Stoke	11	4	4	3	+0	16
15	Watford	11	4	3	4	-2	15
16	Hull	11	3	3	5	-7	12
17	Middlesbrough	11	3	2	6	-3	11
18	Sunderland	11	3	2	6	-6	11
19	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-13	8
20	Crystal Palace	11	2	1	8	-3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	11	8	1	2	+8	25
2	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	+6	22
3	Arsenal	11	6	3	2	+15	21
4	Man City	11	7	0	4	+6	21
5	Man United	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	Tottenham	11	4	5	2	+9	17
7	Everton	11	4	2	5	-2	14
8	West Brom	11	3	3	5	-5	12
9	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-6	12
10	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
11	Swansea	11	3	1	7	-12	10
12	Middlesbrough	11	1	6	4	-4	9
13	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-6	9
14	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-8	9
15	Watford	11	2	3	6	-11	9
16	Bournemouth	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Sunderland	11	1	1	9	-16	4
18	Hull	11	1	1	9	-20	4
19	Leicester	11	0	3	8	-16	3
20	Burnley	10	0	1	9	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.