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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Arsenal

T S T T T

3–0

Full-time

Watford

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,7

1,8

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 40%

45%

34%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

62%

55%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

11 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 9

5 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 6. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	29	25	3	1	+63	78
2	Man United	30	20	5	5	+35	65
3	Liverpool	30	17	9	4	+34	60
4	Tottenham	29	17	7	5	+31	58
5	Chelsea	30	17	5	8	+25	56
6	Arsenal	29	13	6	10	+11	45
7	Burnley	30	11	10	9	+1	43
8	Leicester	30	10	10	10	+2	40
9	Everton	30	10	7	13	-14	37
10	Watford	29	10	6	13	-8	36
11	Brighton	30	8	10	12	-12	34
12	Bournemouth	29	8	9	12	-10	33
13	Newcastle	30	8	8	14	-10	32
14	Swansea	30	8	7	15	-17	31
15	Huddersfield	30	8	7	15	-25	31
16	West Ham	30	7	9	14	-21	30
17	Southampton	30	5	13	12	-15	28
18	Crystal Palace	30	6	9	15	-20	27
19	Stoke	29	6	9	14	-26	27
20	West Brom	30	3	11	16	-24	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	1	0	+41	43
2	Man United	15	12	2	1	+26	38
3	Tottenham	15	10	4	1	+22	34
4	Liverpool	15	9	6	0	+23	33
5	Arsenal	14	10	2	2	+19	32
6	Chelsea	15	10	2	3	+15	32
7	Everton	15	9	2	4	+7	29
8	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+0	24
9	Leicester	15	6	5	4	+4	23
10	Burnley	15	6	4	5	+0	22
11	Watford	15	6	4	5	-4	22
12	Swansea	15	6	2	7	-4	20
13	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	-5	20
14	Newcastle	15	5	4	6	+0	19
15	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-1	19
16	West Ham	14	5	4	5	-4	19
17	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
18	Crystal Palace	15	4	5	6	-5	17
19	Southampton	16	3	7	6	-5	16
20	West Brom	15	2	7	6	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+22	35
2	Liverpool	15	8	3	4	+11	27
3	Man United	15	8	3	4	+9	27
4	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+10	24
5	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+9	24
6	Burnley	15	5	6	4	+1	21
7	Leicester	15	4	5	6	-2	17
8	Watford	14	4	2	8	-4	14
9	Bournemouth	15	3	5	7	-9	14
10	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	-8	13
11	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-10	13
12	Southampton	14	2	6	6	-10	12
13	Swansea	15	2	5	8	-13	11
14	West Ham	16	2	5	9	-17	11
15	Huddersfield	15	3	2	10	-20	11
16	Brighton	15	2	4	9	-12	10
17	Crystal Palace	15	2	4	9	-15	10
18	Stoke	15	1	5	9	-21	8
19	Everton	15	1	5	9	-21	8
20	West Brom	15	1	4	10	-16	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.