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Europa League
Referee: A Papapetrou
Ludogorets
S S T U T
1–2
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ludogorets Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/3 matches
Win Ø 54%
40%
67%
Points per game
1,4
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 20%
40%
0%
Both score Ø 27%
20%
33%
Average goals
2,2
1,7
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,58 xG 1,66
40% Possession 60%
9 Shots 19
2 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 6
5 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ludogorets Ath Bilbao
1–0 Erick Marcus ⚽
20′
Erick Marcus ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
22′
23′
🟨 Yuri Berchiche
Rick 🟨
30′
Half-time 1–0
48′
🟨 Daniel Vivian
56′
🔁 Nico Serrano
↦ Álvaro Djaló
56′
🔁 De Marcos
↦ Andoni Gorosabel
56′
🔁 Mikel Vesga
↦ Beñat Prados
68′
🔁 Unai Gómez
↦ Ruíz de Galarreta
72′
🟨 Mikel Vesga
73′
⚽ I. Williams 1–1
De Marcos
G. Rusev 🔁
↦ Erick Marcus
74′
74′
⚽ Nico Serrano 1–2
Unai Gómez
Georgi Rusev 🟨
77′
84′
🔁 Ander Herrera
↦ Nico Williams
D. Gropper 🔁
↦ A. Witry
85′
I. Chochev 🔁
↦ I. Yordanov
85′
Rwan Cruz 🟨
94′
94′
🟨 Nico Serrano
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-2-3-1
1 S. Padt G
16 A. Witry D
24 O. Verdon D
4 Dinis Almeida D
17 Son D
23 Deroy Duarte M
82 I. Yordanov M
77 Erick Marcus M
12 Rwan Cruz M
7 Rick M
9 K. Duah F
Bench (9)
19 G. Rusev
14 D. Gropper
18 I. Chochev
67 D. Hristov
5 G. Terziev
39 H. Bonmann
15 E. Kurtulus
80 M. Stefanov
20 A. Camara

Coach: I. Jovičević

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
2 Andoni Gorosabel D
3 Dani Vivian D
4 Aitor Paredes D
17 Yuri D
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
24 Beñat Prados M
9 I. Williams M
7 Álex Berenguer M
10 Nico Williams M
11 Álvaro Djaló F
Bench (12)
22 Nico Serrano
18 De Marcos
6 Mikel Vesga
20 Unai Gómez
21 Ander Herrera
19 Javi Martón
26 Á. Padilla
14 Unai Núñez
5 Yeray
8 Oihan Sancet
15 Lekue
32 Adama Boiro

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Papapetrou · 96 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.