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Europa League
Referee: I Kružliak
Ajax
S T S U T
1–3
Full-time
Lazio
S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Lazio
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 11/5 matches
Win Ø 77%
73%
80%
Points per game
2,3
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
55%
60%
Both score Ø 34%
27%
40%
Average goals
2,8
2,6
Scored
2,3
2,2
Conceded
0,5
0,4
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,18 xG 1,59
54% Possession 46%
16 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 0
2 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ajax Lazio
12′
⚽ L. Tchaouna 0–1
Pedro
Jorrel Hato 🟨
38′
Half-time 0–1
Brian Brobbey 🟨
46′
46′
🟨 Luca Pellegrini
46′
🔁 M. Zaccagni
↦ B. Dia
46′
🔁 A. Marušić
↦ M. Lazzari
47′
🟨 Nicolò Rovella
1–1 B. Traoré ⚽
47′
52′
⚽ F. Dele-Bashiru 1–2
M. Zaccagni
K. Fitz-Jim 🔁
↦ M. Godts
57′
69′
🔁 Nuno Tavares
↦ L. Pellegrini
W. Weghorst 🔁
↦ B. Brobbey
72′
C. Akpom 🔁
↦ S. Berghuis
72′
72′
🔁 Mario Gila
↦ Patric
77′
⚽ Pedro 1–3
L. Tchaouna
A. Gaaei 🔁
↦ D. Rensch
78′
C. Rasmussen 🔁
↦ K. Taylor
78′
Wout Weghorst 🟨
82′
82′
🟨 Samuel Gigot
88′
🔁 M. Guendouzi
↦ Pedro
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
2 D. Rensch D
37 J. Šutalo D
15 Y. Baas D
4 J. Hato D
23 S. Berghuis M
6 J. Henderson M
8 K. Taylor M
20 B. Traoré F
9 B. Brobbey F
11 M. Godts F
Bench (12)
28 K. Fitz-Jim
25 W. Weghorst
10 C. Akpom
3 A. Gaaei
29 C. Rasmussen
36 D. Janse
38 K. Hlynsson
40 D. Ramaj
12 J. Gorter
24 D. Rugani
13 A. Kaplan
21 B. van den Boomen

Coach: F. Farioli

Lazio

4-2-3-1
35 C. Mandas G
29 M. Lazzari D
2 S. Gigot D
4 Patric D
3 L. Pellegrini D
7 F. Dele-Bashiru M
6 N. Rovella M
20 L. Tchaouna M
19 B. Dia M
9 Pedro M
11 V. Castellanos F
Bench (9)
10 M. Zaccagni
77 A. Marušić
30 Nuno Tavares
34 Mario Gila
8 M. Guendouzi
55 A. Furlanetto
14 T. Noslin
94 I. Provedel
18 G. Isaksen

Coach: M. Baroni

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kružliak · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.