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Europa League
Referee: D Siebert
Roma
T T U T S
3–0
Full-time
Sp Braga
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/11 matches
Win Ø 38%
20%
55%
Points per game
1,2
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
20%
73%
Both score Ø 58%
60%
55%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,59 xG 1,09
54% Possession 46%
34 Shots 8
17 Shots on target 0
7 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 12
14 Corners 5
4 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Roma Sp Braga
1–0 L. Pellegrini ⚽
N. Zalewski
10′
32′
🟨 Roger Fernandes
Half-time 1–0
A. Dovbyk 🔁
↦ P. Dybala
46′
46′
🔁 Adrián Marín
↦ Robson Bambu
2–0 Saud Abdulhamid ⚽
M. Koné
47′
50′
🟨 Ricardo Horta
56′
🔁 R. Zalazar
↦ João Moutinho
56′
🔁 André Horta
↦ Ricardo Horta
68′
🟥 Matheus
70′
🔁 L. Horníček
↦ Ismaël Gharbi
Mats Hummels 🟨
72′
S. El Shaarawy 🔁
↦ M. Soulé
73′
A. Saelemaekers 🔁
↦ L. Pellegrini
74′
Hermoso 🔁
↦ M. Hummels
74′
74′
🔁 Roberto Fernández
↦ A. El Ouazzani
E. Le Fée 🔁
↦ N. Pisilli
85′
3–0 Hermoso ⚽
91′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
23 G. Mancini D
15 M. Hummels D
5 E. Ndicka D
12 Saud Abdulhamid M
61 N. Pisilli M
17 M. Koné M
59 N. Zalewski M
18 M. Soulé F
7 L. Pellegrini F
21 P. Dybala F
Bench (12)
11 A. Dovbyk
92 S. El Shaarawy
56 A. Saelemaekers
22 Hermoso
28 E. Le Fée
35 T. Baldanzi
3 Angeliño
98 M. Ryan
89 R. Bellucci
19 Z. Çelik
14 E. Shomurodov
66 Buba Sangaré

Coach: C. Ranieri

Sp Braga

5-4-1
1 Matheus G
11 Roger Fernandes D
13 João Ferreira D
15 Paulo Oliveira D
3 Robson Bambu D
77 Gabri Martínez D
21 Ricardo Horta M
29 J. Gorby
8 João Moutinho M
20 Ismaël Gharbi M
9 A. El Ouazzani F
Bench (12)
19 Adrián Marín
16 R. Zalazar
10 André Horta
91 L. Horníček
90 Roberto Fernández
2 Víctor Gómez
53 Jonatás Noro
6 Vitor Carvalho
12 Tiago Sá
33 João Marques
26 B. Arrey-Mbi
25 Yuri Ribeiro

Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.