Conference League
Referee: C Theouli
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
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Who wins?
Pro
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Mlada Boleslav
Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 7/1 matches
Win Ø 79%
57%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
43%
100%
Both score Ø 22%
43%
0%
Average goals
2,9
3,0
Scored
1,9
3,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+3,0
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Goal markets
Pro
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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Most likely result
Pro
The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Match stats
Half-time score: 0–1
1,28
xG
1,19
38%
Possession
62%
12
Shots
13
5
Shots on target
5
3
Blocked shots
5
4
Goalkeeper saves
5
5
Corners
3
1
Offside
3
14
Free kicks against
10
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
Match report
Mlada Boleslav
Lugano
ℹ️
Renato Steffen
VAR: Penalty cancelled
⚽
R. Steffen
0–1
Half-time 0–1
V. Stránský
🔁
↦ B. Sakala
🔁
K. Przybyłko
↦ H. Mahou
🔁
M. Bottani
↦ I. Aliseda
🟨
Albian Hajdari
Patrik Vydra
❌
penalty missed
D. Mareček
🔁
↦ J. Fulnek
🔁
M. Hadj Mahmoud
↦ A. Grgic
M. Vojta
🔁
↦ T. Ladra
🔁
L. Mai
↦ R. Steffen
🔁
Daniel Dos Santos
↦ U. Bislimi
🟨
Mattia Bottani
Full-time 0–1
Line-ups
Mlada Boleslav
3-4-2-1
29
M. Trmal
G
14
T. Král
D
17
M. Suchý
D
3
M. Králik
D
31
D. Kostka
M
66
P. Vydra
M
5
B. Sakala
M
11
J. Fulnek
M
10
T. Ladra
F
23
V. Kušej
F
28
L. Mašek
F
Bench (12)
12
V. Stránský
30
D. Mareček
9
M. Vojta
26
A. Kadlec
32
L. Jawo
15
N. Penner
99
P. Mikulec
13
D. Donát
18
M. Pulkrab
8
M. Matějovský
6
D. Langhamer
59
J. Floder
Coach: A. Brännström
Lugano
4-2-3-1
1
A. Saipi
G
A. Saipi
G
2
Z. Brault-Guillard
D
6
A. Papadopoulos
D
A. Papadopoulos
D
5
A. Hajdari
D
A. Hajdari
D
26
Martim Marques
D
Martim Marques
D
8
A. Grgic
M
A. Grgic
M
20
O. Doumbia
M
11
R. Steffen
M
R. Steffen
M
25
U. Bislimi
M
U. Bislimi
M
31
I. Aliseda
M
18
H. Mahou
F
H. Mahou
F
Bench (10)
93
K. Przybyłko
10
M. Bottani
29
M. Hadj Mahmoud
17
L. Mai
27
Daniel Dos Santos
9
S. Vladi
58
S. Osigwe
21
Y. Cimignani
99
D. Mina
22
A. El Wafi
Coach: M. Croci-Torti
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
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The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.