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Pro League

Referee: W De Cremer

Lommel United

T S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Dender

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lommel United Dender

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 4/30 matches

Win Ø 57%

100%

13%

Points per game

3,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

100%

60%

Both score Ø 71%

75%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,8

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	27	22	1	4	+33	+20.7	67
2	St. Gilloise	27	18	8	1	+33	+23.6	62
3	St Truiden	28	16	4	8	+14	+14.6	52
4	Genk	27	11	9	7	+7	+10.8	42
5	Mechelen	28	11	9	8	-1	-12.2	42
6	Gent	27	11	7	9	+3	+2.6	40
7	Waregem	30	12	4	14	-1	-4.9	40
8	Cercle Brugge	30	10	7	13	-2	+3.7	37
9	Standard	28	10	7	11	-6	-11.5	37
10	Anderlecht	28	9	8	11	-2	-1.3	35
11	Antwerp	28	10	5	13	-4	-0.1	35
12	Westerlo	28	9	8	11	-7	-1.0	35
13	Charleroi	28	9	5	14	-4	-4.5	32
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	28	6	8	14	-15	-9.3	26
15	RAAL La Louviere	30	5	10	15	-17	-10.8	25
16	Dender	30	4	6	20	-31	-20.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gilloise	14	13	1	0	+26	+15.5	40
2	Club Brugge	13	10	1	2	+17	+10.3	31
3	St Truiden	14	9	1	4	+4	+9.3	28
4	Genk	14	6	5	3	+7	+9.2	23
5	Waregem	15	7	2	6	+4	+1.3	23
6	Gent	13	6	3	4	+6	+0.5	21
7	Mechelen	14	5	4	5	-1	-3.1	19
8	Antwerp	14	5	3	6	-3	+1.2	18
9	Anderlecht	14	4	5	5	+3	+4.2	17
10	Westerlo	14	4	4	6	-2	-1.3	16
11	Charleroi	14	4	3	7	-2	-0.8	15
12	RAAL La Louviere	15	3	6	6	-4	-2.5	15
13	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	14	3	4	7	-3	-3.0	13
14	Cercle Brugge	15	3	3	9	-7	+1.4	12
15	Standard	14	2	6	6	-8	-3.9	12
16	Dender	15	2	2	11	-19	-10.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	14	12	0	2	+16	+10.4	36
2	Cercle Brugge	15	7	4	4	+5	+2.2	25
3	Standard	14	8	1	5	+2	-7.6	25
4	St Truiden	14	7	3	4	+10	+5.3	24
5	Mechelen	14	6	5	3	+0	-9.2	23
6	St. Gilloise	13	5	7	1	+7	+8.1	22
7	Genk	13	5	4	4	+0	+1.6	19
8	Gent	14	5	4	5	-3	+2.0	19
9	Westerlo	14	5	4	5	-5	+0.2	19
10	Anderlecht	14	5	3	6	-5	-5.5	18
11	Antwerp	14	5	2	7	-1	-1.4	17
12	Charleroi	14	5	2	7	-2	-3.7	17
13	Waregem	15	5	2	8	-5	-6.2	17
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	14	3	4	7	-12	-6.3	13
15	Dender	15	2	4	9	-12	-10.0	10
16	RAAL La Louviere	15	2	4	9	-13	-8.3	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.