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Serie A

Referee: D Perenzoni

Atalanta

U U T U S

0–1

Full-time

Bologna

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 42%

42%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

39%

44%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,76 xG 0,69

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 7. · Bologna 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	37	27	5	5	+54	+37.0	86
2	Napoli	37	22	7	8	+21	+11.5	73
3	Roma	37	22	4	11	+26	+13.2	70
4	Milan	37	20	10	7	+19	+17.4	70
5	Como	37	19	11	7	+33	+26.6	68
6	Juventus	37	19	11	7	+27	+34.8	68
7	Atalanta	36	15	13	8	+16	+14.7	58
8	Bologna	36	15	7	14	+2	-0.8	52
9	Lazio	37	13	12	12	+0	-4.6	51
10	Udinese	36	14	8	14	-1	-9.1	50
11	Sassuolo	36	14	7	15	-2	-14.2	49
12	Torino	36	12	8	16	-18	-6.8	44
13	Parma	37	10	12	15	-19	-25.0	42
14	Genoa	37	10	11	16	-9	-2.5	41
15	Fiorentina	37	9	14	14	-9	+3.3	41
16	Cagliari	36	9	10	17	-15	-16.2	37
17	Lecce	36	8	8	20	-24	-26.2	32
18	Cremonese	36	7	10	19	-23	-21.1	31
19	Verona	37	3	12	22	-34	-12.2	21
20	Pisa	37	2	12	23	-44	-20.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	3	2	+34	+27.5	45
2	Roma	19	13	3	3	+23	+12.7	42
3	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+14	+2.4	40
4	Juventus	19	10	7	2	+19	+23.7	37
5	Como	19	10	6	3	+20	+22.3	36
6	Atalanta	18	9	6	3	+11	+16.6	33
7	Milan	18	9	5	4	+5	+11.4	32
8	Sassuolo	18	9	2	7	+0	-7.0	29
9	Lazio	18	7	6	5	+1	+0.5	27
10	Torino	18	8	3	7	-2	-2.5	27
11	Udinese	18	6	5	7	-2	-1.0	23
12	Cagliari	18	6	4	8	-2	-6.0	22
13	Genoa	19	6	4	9	-4	+2.3	22
14	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-4	+2.0	21
15	Fiorentina	18	4	8	6	+0	+10.4	20
16	Parma	18	4	6	8	-10	-11.2	18
17	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-12	-7.1	17
18	Cremonese	18	3	7	8	-8	-2.6	16
19	Pisa	19	2	4	13	-17	-5.0	10
20	Verona	18	1	5	12	-14	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	2	3	+20	+9.6	41
2	Milan	19	11	5	3	+14	+6.0	38
3	Napoli	19	10	3	6	+7	+9.1	33
4	Como	18	9	5	4	+13	+4.3	32
5	Juventus	18	9	4	5	+8	+11.1	31
6	Bologna	18	9	4	5	+6	-2.8	31
7	Roma	18	9	1	8	+3	+0.5	28
8	Udinese	18	8	3	7	+1	-8.1	27
9	Atalanta	18	6	7	5	+5	-1.9	25
10	Lazio	19	6	6	7	-1	-5.1	24
11	Parma	19	6	6	7	-9	-13.8	24
12	Fiorentina	19	5	6	8	-9	-7.1	21
13	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-2	-7.2	20
14	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-5	-4.8	19
15	Torino	18	4	5	9	-16	-4.2	17
16	Lecce	18	4	3	11	-12	-19.0	15
17	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-13	-10.2	15
18	Cremonese	18	4	3	11	-15	-18.5	15
19	Verona	19	2	7	10	-20	-9.9	13
20	Pisa	18	0	8	10	-27	-15.0	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.