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2. Bundesliga

Referee: M P Eckermann

Dresden

S S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 32%

30%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

70%

52%

Both score Ø 66%

70%

61%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,91 xG 1,01

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 9

4 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dresden 13. · Holstein Kiel 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	33	20	7	6	+18	+16.6	67
2	Elversberg	33	17	8	8	+22	+8.8	59
3	Hannover	33	16	11	6	+16	+12.5	59
4	Paderborn	33	17	8	8	+12	+13.6	59
5	Darmstadt	33	13	13	7	+14	+2.3	52
6	Hertha	33	14	9	10	+8	-3.1	51
7	Kaiserslautern	33	15	4	14	+4	-2.3	49
8	Nurnberg	33	12	9	12	+2	+1.5	45
9	Karlsruhe	33	12	8	13	-10	-19.7	44
10	Bochum	33	10	11	12	+1	+4.1	41
11	Holstein Kiel	33	11	8	14	-3	-11.6	41
12	Magdeburg	33	12	3	18	-5	+6.8	39
13	Dresden	33	10	8	15	+0	+3.6	38
14	Braunschweig	33	10	7	16	-17	-4.3	37
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	33	11	4	18	-17	-6.5	37
16	Bielefeld	33	9	9	15	-3	+2.2	36
17	Greuther Furth	33	9	7	17	-22	-9.4	34
18	Preußen Münster	33	6	12	15	-20	-15.1	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	16	12	3	1	+14	+9.4	39
2	Darmstadt	16	10	5	1	+17	+8.6	35
3	Elversberg	16	10	4	2	+18	+7.3	34
4	Kaiserslautern	17	11	1	5	+16	+4.9	34
5	Paderborn	17	10	3	4	+8	+11.3	33
6	Nurnberg	17	9	4	4	+10	+4.2	31
7	Karlsruhe	16	9	3	4	+6	-3.8	30
8	Bochum	17	8	5	4	+9	+10.7	29
9	Hannover	16	7	5	4	+4	+8.1	26
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	17	7	3	7	-4	-1.4	24
11	Bielefeld	16	6	5	5	+8	+12.9	23
12	Hertha	17	6	5	6	-2	-0.6	23
13	Braunschweig	17	6	5	6	-6	+2.1	23
14	Holstein Kiel	17	6	4	7	+3	+0.0	22
15	Dresden	16	6	3	7	+7	+9.2	21
16	Greuther Furth	16	5	5	6	-8	-4.0	20
17	Magdeburg	16	5	2	9	-4	+7.3	17
18	Preußen Münster	17	3	8	6	-4	-3.9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	17	9	6	2	+12	+4.4	33
2	Hertha	16	8	4	4	+10	-2.6	28
3	Schalke 04	17	8	4	5	+4	+7.2	28
4	Paderborn	16	7	5	4	+4	+2.3	26
5	Elversberg	17	7	4	6	+4	+1.5	25
6	Magdeburg	17	7	1	9	-1	-0.4	22
7	Holstein Kiel	16	5	4	7	-6	-11.7	19
8	Darmstadt	17	3	8	6	-3	-6.2	17
9	Dresden	17	4	5	8	-7	-5.5	17
10	Kaiserslautern	16	4	3	9	-12	-7.2	15
11	Nurnberg	16	3	5	8	-8	-2.8	14
12	Braunschweig	16	4	2	10	-11	-6.4	14
13	Greuther Furth	17	4	2	11	-14	-5.4	14
14	Karlsruhe	17	3	5	9	-16	-15.9	14
15	Bielefeld	17	3	4	10	-11	-10.7	13
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	4	1	11	-13	-5.1	13
17	Preußen Münster	16	3	4	9	-16	-11.2	13
18	Bochum	16	2	6	8	-8	-6.5	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.