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Pro League

Referee: J Boterberg

Mechelen

S U U U S

2–3

Full-time

Genk

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mechelen Genk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 17/14 matches

Win Ø 42%

47%

36%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

29%

64%

Both score Ø 73%

59%

86%

Average goals

2,3

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,71 xG 2,99

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mechelen 4. · Genk 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	16	12	1	3	+16	+5.7	37
2	St. Gilloise	15	10	5	0	+22	+17.4	35
3	St Truiden	15	10	2	3	+9	+14.5	32
4	Mechelen	17	8	7	2	+9	-2.5	31
5	Gent	14	8	2	4	+7	+3.6	26
6	Antwerp	17	6	4	7	+2	-0.7	22
7	Waregem	18	6	3	9	-4	-6.6	21
8	Cercle Brugge	20	5	6	9	-5	-3.1	21
9	Westerlo	18	5	6	7	-6	+1.1	21
10	Anderlecht	16	5	5	6	-2	+4.3	20
11	Genk	14	5	4	5	+0	-0.4	19
12	Charleroi	16	5	3	8	-3	-1.4	18
13	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	17	4	6	7	-5	-3.2	18
14	RAAL La Louviere	19	4	6	9	-7	-8.4	18
15	Standard	17	5	3	9	-14	-10.8	18
16	Dender	19	2	5	12	-19	-9.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gilloise	7	7	0	0	+17	+9.7	21
2	Club Brugge	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.8	19
3	Gent	7	5	0	2	+7	+2.5	15
4	St Truiden	8	5	0	3	+0	+5.1	15
5	Mechelen	8	3	4	1	+3	+1.7	13
6	Waregem	9	4	1	4	+1	-1.3	13
7	Antwerp	9	3	3	3	+1	-0.1	12
8	Genk	8	3	2	3	+0	+4.1	11
9	Westerlo	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.1	11
10	RAAL La Louviere	9	2	4	3	-2	-4.7	10
11	Anderlecht	7	2	3	2	+2	+5.3	9
12	Charleroi	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.1	9
13	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	9	1	4	4	-1	-0.8	7
14	Standard	8	1	3	4	-7	-3.0	6
15	Cercle Brugge	11	1	3	7	-9	-2.0	6
16	Dender	9	1	1	7	-11	-3.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	7	6	0	1	+9	+3.9	18
2	Mechelen	9	5	3	1	+6	-4.2	18
3	St Truiden	7	5	2	0	+9	+9.4	17
4	Cercle Brugge	9	4	3	2	+4	-1.1	15
5	St. Gilloise	8	3	5	0	+5	+7.7	14
6	Standard	9	4	0	5	-7	-7.8	12
7	Gent	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.1	11
8	Anderlecht	9	3	2	4	-4	-0.9	11
9	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	8	3	2	3	-4	-2.4	11
10	Antwerp	8	3	1	4	+1	-0.6	10
11	Westerlo	10	2	4	4	-6	-2.0	10
12	Charleroi	8	3	0	5	-2	-1.2	9
13	Genk	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.5	8
14	Waregem	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.2	8
15	RAAL La Louviere	10	2	2	6	-5	-3.7	8
16	Dender	10	1	4	5	-8	-5.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.