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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Monaco

U U S T U

3–1

Full-time

Nantes

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 26%

38%

14%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,78 xG 1,14

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 8

5 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 10. · Nantes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	16	3	3	+30	+23.6	51
2	Lens	21	16	1	4	+20	+11.7	49
3	Lyon	21	13	3	5	+14	+10.3	42
4	Marseille	21	12	3	6	+19	+9.3	39
5	Rennes	22	9	7	6	-1	-2.0	34
6	Lille	21	10	3	8	+4	+6.1	33
7	Strasbourg	21	9	3	9	+7	+6.9	30
8	Toulouse	21	8	6	7	+7	+0.9	30
9	Angers	21	8	5	8	-3	-12.4	29
10	Monaco	21	8	4	9	-1	+4.9	28
11	Lorient	21	7	7	7	-6	-0.5	28
12	Brest	21	7	5	9	-5	+2.1	26
13	Le Havre	21	5	8	8	-8	-5.2	23
14	Nice	21	6	5	10	-11	-11.3	23
15	Paris FC	21	5	7	9	-8	-7.1	22
16	Auxerre	21	3	5	13	-15	-7.2	14
17	Nantes	21	3	5	13	-18	-12.5	14
18	Metz	21	3	4	14	-25	-17.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	11	10	0	1	+16	+12.7	30
2	Paris SG	10	9	1	0	+23	+13.9	28
3	Lyon	10	8	0	2	+10	+9.6	24
4	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+16	+8.8	23
5	Rennes	11	6	3	2	+10	+6.3	21
6	Angers	11	6	2	3	+4	-1.6	20
7	Strasbourg	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.1	19
8	Lille	10	6	1	3	+5	+6.8	19
9	Monaco	11	6	1	4	+4	+6.7	19
10	Lorient	10	5	4	1	+4	+4.2	19
11	Brest	11	5	3	3	+3	+9.1	18
12	Le Havre	11	4	5	2	+3	+6.7	17
13	Toulouse	11	4	4	3	+4	+3.5	16
14	Nice	11	4	4	3	+0	-1.6	16
15	Auxerre	11	3	2	6	-2	+2.0	11
16	Paris FC	10	2	4	4	-3	-0.8	10
17	Metz	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.8	9
18	Nantes	11	1	2	8	-12	-7.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	7	2	3	+7	+9.7	23
2	Lens	10	6	1	3	+4	-1.0	19
3	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+4	+0.7	18
4	Marseille	11	5	1	5	+3	+0.5	16
5	Toulouse	10	4	2	4	+3	-2.6	14
6	Lille	11	4	2	5	-1	-0.7	14
7	Rennes	11	3	4	4	-11	-8.3	13
8	Paris FC	11	3	3	5	-5	-6.3	12
9	Strasbourg	11	3	2	6	-3	-4.2	11
10	Monaco	10	2	3	5	-5	-1.8	9
11	Nantes	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.1	9
12	Angers	10	2	3	5	-7	-10.7	9
13	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-10	-4.7	9
14	Brest	10	2	2	6	-8	-6.9	8
15	Nice	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
16	Le Havre	10	1	3	6	-11	-11.9	6
17	Metz	11	1	1	9	-19	-14.0	4
18	Auxerre	10	0	3	7	-13	-9.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.