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Primeira Liga

Referee: D Rosa

Casa Pia

T T U S U

3–2

Full-time

Arouca

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 24%

19%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

52%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

2,07 xG 1,22

31% Possession 69%

11 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 8

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 15. · Arouca 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	21	18	2	1	+35	+26.1	56
2	Sp Lisbon	21	16	4	1	+43	+31.4	52
3	Benfica	22	15	7	0	+33	+26.3	52
4	Sp Braga	21	11	6	4	+26	+20.5	39
5	Gil Vicente	21	10	7	4	+14	+7.9	37
6	Famalicao	21	9	5	7	+7	+6.5	32
7	Estoril	21	8	6	7	+8	-3.2	30
8	Moreirense	21	9	3	9	-2	-9.1	30
9	Guimaraes	21	8	4	9	-7	-3.9	28
10	Alverca	22	7	4	11	-15	-4.7	25
11	Estrela	21	5	8	8	-12	-9.9	23
12	Arouca	21	6	5	10	-20	-17.6	23
13	Nacional	21	5	6	10	-3	-6.5	21
14	Rio Ave	21	4	8	9	-19	-18.8	20
15	Casa Pia	21	4	7	10	-17	-19.9	19
16	Santa Clara	22	4	5	13	-11	+1.0	17
17	Tondela	22	3	6	13	-21	-7.0	15
18	AVS	21	0	5	16	-39	-19.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+17	+13.3	26
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+28	+19.1	25
3	Benfica	11	7	4	0	+17	+15.6	25
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+15	+12.5	20
5	Gil Vicente	10	6	2	2	+10	+5.6	20
6	Estoril	11	5	4	2	+7	-1.0	19
7	Moreirense	10	6	1	3	+2	-4.1	19
8	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.1	18
9	Famalicao	11	5	2	4	+10	+5.8	17
10	Alverca	11	5	2	4	-5	+4.1	17
11	Estrela	11	3	4	4	-3	+0.0	13
12	Arouca	11	3	3	5	-9	-7.9	12
13	Nacional	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.2	11
14	Santa Clara	12	3	2	7	-4	+2.3	11
15	Rio Ave	10	2	3	5	-8	-6.4	9
16	Casa Pia	10	1	5	4	-7	-10.8	8
17	Tondela	11	1	4	6	-7	-3.9	7
18	AVS	11	0	3	8	-16	-8.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	0	1	+18	+12.8	30
2	Benfica	11	8	3	0	+16	+10.8	27
3	Sp Lisbon	11	8	3	0	+15	+12.3	27
4	Sp Braga	11	5	4	2	+11	+8.1	19
5	Gil Vicente	11	4	5	2	+4	+2.3	17
6	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-3	+0.7	15
7	Estoril	10	3	2	5	+1	-2.2	11
8	Moreirense	11	3	2	6	-4	-5.0	11
9	Casa Pia	11	3	2	6	-10	-9.1	11
10	Arouca	10	3	2	5	-11	-9.7	11
11	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	-11	-12.4	11
12	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.3	10
13	Guimaraes	10	3	1	6	-8	-1.8	10
14	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-9	-9.9	10
15	Alverca	11	2	2	7	-10	-8.9	8
16	Tondela	11	2	2	7	-14	-3.0	8
17	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-7	-1.3	6
18	AVS	10	0	2	8	-23	-10.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.