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Primeira Liga

Referee: I Vasilica

Rio Ave

U S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 19%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

63%

44%

Both score Ø 54%

63%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,97 xG 1,89

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 23

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 11. · Casa Pia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	16	15	1	0	+31	+22.2	46
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+38	+28.4	42
3	Benfica	17	11	6	0	+25	+18.5	39
4	Gil Vicente	17	7	7	3	+10	+4.9	28
5	Sp Braga	17	7	6	4	+13	+13.4	27
6	Guimaraes	17	7	4	6	-4	-3.8	25
7	Moreirense	16	7	3	6	-1	-4.8	24
8	Famalicao	16	6	5	5	+7	+7.4	23
9	Estoril	17	5	5	7	-1	-4.8	20
10	Estrela	17	4	7	6	-4	-5.4	19
11	Rio Ave	16	3	8	5	-9	-13.1	17
12	Alverca	16	5	2	9	-11	-2.2	17
13	Santa Clara	15	4	4	7	-4	+2.6	16
14	Nacional	16	4	4	8	-5	-7.1	16
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-13	-13.6	14
16	Arouca	17	3	5	9	-24	-19.0	14
17	Tondela	16	3	3	10	-16	-6.4	12
18	AVS	17	0	4	13	-32	-17.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+24	+16.6	19
3	Benfica	9	5	4	0	+12	+12.8	19
4	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+5	-0.4	15
5	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	+1	-2.0	15
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.0	14
7	Gil Vicente	8	4	2	2	+4	+3.2	14
8	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.6	13
9	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	+5	+3.5	11
10	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	+1	+4.8	11
11	Estrela	9	2	4	3	+1	+2.5	10
12	Alverca	8	3	1	4	-7	+2.3	10
13	Arouca	9	2	3	4	-9	-8.0	9
14	Nacional	7	2	0	5	-5	-4.1	6
15	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.4	6
16	Tondela	8	1	2	5	-6	-3.2	5
17	Casa Pia	8	0	4	4	-8	-8.0	4
18	AVS	9	0	3	6	-11	-6.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+17	+10.1	24
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+14	+11.8	23
3	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+13	+5.7	20
4	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	+6	+1.7	14
5	Sp Braga	9	3	4	2	+6	+6.4	13
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.9	12
7	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-2	-3.2	11
8	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-4	-8.7	11
9	Nacional	9	2	4	3	+0	-3.0	10
10	Casa Pia	8	3	1	4	-5	-5.6	10
11	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-5	-1.7	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	-5	-7.8	9
13	Alverca	8	2	1	5	-4	-4.5	7
14	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-10	-3.2	7
15	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
16	Estoril	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.4	5
17	Arouca	8	1	2	5	-15	-11.1	5
18	AVS	8	0	1	7	-21	-10.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.