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Bundesliga
Referee: I Simsek
Tirol
U S T T T
1–0
Full-time
Sturm Graz
T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tirol Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 42%
28%
56%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
50%
56%
Both score Ø 62%
67%
56%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,6
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,92 xG 0,46
46% Possession 54%
13 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Tirol 10. · Sturm Graz 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Salzburg 18 9 5 4 +13 +4.9 32
2 LASK 18 10 2 6 +4 +0.2 32
3 Sturm Graz 18 10 1 7 +5 +3.6 31
4 Austria Vienna 18 9 2 7 +1 -0.6 29
5 Hartberg 18 7 6 5 +4 -2.5 27
6 SK Rapid 18 7 5 6 +0 -0.1 26
7 Ried 18 8 2 8 -1 +0.7 26
8 Wolfsberger AC 18 7 4 7 +4 -4.0 25
9 Altach 18 6 6 6 +0 -1.0 24
10 Tirol 18 5 6 7 -3 +4.6 21
11 Grazer AK 18 3 7 8 -12 -1.5 16
12 BW Linz 18 3 2 13 -15 -4.5 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. Dec -25 Sturm Graz – Tirol 1–3 7. Dec -24 Tirol – Sturm Graz 0–3 31. Aug -24 Sturm Graz – Tirol 4–2 25. Feb -24 Tirol – Sturm Graz 0–2 1. Oct -23 Sturm Graz – Tirol 1–0

Match report

Tirol Sturm Graz
42′
🔁 J. Hodl
↦ O. Kiteishvili
Half-time 0–0
53′
🟨 Jeyland Mitchell
65′
🔁 S. Jatta
↦ M. Malone
65′
🔁 B. Beganovic
↦ A. Kayombo
65′
🔁 L. Weinhandl
↦ R. Fosso
T. Sabitzer 🔁
↦ N. Baden Frederiksen
69′
L. Hinterseer 🔁
↦ A. Ola-Adebomi
75′
75′
🔁 A. Malic
↦ J. Gazibegovic
1–0 J. Lawrence ⚽
V. Muller
78′
D. Gugganig 🔁
↦ D. Kubatta
89′
C. Huetz 🔁
↦ M. Wels
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Tirol

3-4-2-1
40 A. Stejskal G
23 M. Boras D
5 J. Lawrence D
14 D. Kubatta D
17 J. Naschberger M
4 V. Muller M
30 M. Taferner M
20 B. Bockle M
8 N. Baden Frederiksen F
37 M. Wels F
9 A. Ola-Adebomi F
Bench (9)
13 A. Eckmayr
16 L. Hinterseer
6 L. Sulzbacher
22 D. Falkner
3 D. Gugganig
11 T. Anselm
10 T. Sabitzer
27 D. Jaunegg
19 C. Huetz

Coach: Philipp Semlic

Sturm Graz

3-4-2-1
40 M. Bignetti G
5 A. Vallci D
2 J. Mitchell D
30 P. Koller D
22 J. Gazibegovic M
80 R. Fosso M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovic M
17 E. Karic M
77 M. Malone F
10 O. Kiteishvili F
11 A. Kayombo F
Bench (9)
41 E. Lorenz
20 S. Jatta
15 G. Mamageishvili
26 B. Beganovic
43 J. Hodl
39 L. Weinhandl
47 E. Aiwu
35 N. Geyrhofer
23 A. Malic

Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Simsek · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.