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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Preston

T T T U S

2–2

Full-time

Watford

U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,5

Scored

0,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

42%

45%

Both score Ø 58%

55%

61%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,82 xG 0,85

51% Possession 49%

8 Shots 20

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 9

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 7. · Watford 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	31	17	8	6	+28	+24.6	59
2	Ipswich	30	15	9	6	+22	+24.6	54
3	Middlesbrough	28	16	6	6	+12	+9.9	54
4	Millwall	30	15	8	7	+5	+4.7	53
5	Hull	29	15	6	8	+8	-14.0	51
6	Wrexham	31	12	11	8	+5	-2.7	47
7	Preston	31	12	11	8	+4	-9.5	47
8	Bristol City	31	13	7	11	+5	+0.2	46
9	Birmingham	32	12	10	10	+4	+16.2	46
10	Southampton	30	12	9	9	+8	+13.7	45
11	Derby	31	12	9	10	+6	-3.9	45
12	Watford	31	11	11	9	+3	+5.7	44
13	QPR	31	12	8	11	-1	+1.8	44
14	Stoke	32	12	7	13	+5	-8.6	43
15	Swansea	31	12	6	13	+1	-3.6	42
16	Norwich	32	11	6	15	+0	-7.2	39
17	Sheffield United	31	12	3	16	-1	+10.9	39
18	Charlton	31	10	9	12	-8	-11.4	39
19	Leicester	32	10	8	14	-7	-13.5	38
20	West Brom	32	9	7	16	-15	+3.0	34
21	Portsmouth	29	8	9	12	-11	-3.0	33
22	Blackburn	31	8	8	15	-13	+2.9	32
23	Oxford	32	6	10	16	-16	-9.7	28
24	Sheffield Weds	31	1	8	22	-44	-31.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	15	11	3	1	+20	+14.3	36
2	Ipswich	16	10	5	1	+18	+20.1	35
3	Birmingham	16	8	7	1	+15	+18.1	31
4	Middlesbrough	14	9	3	2	+10	+4.0	30
5	Millwall	15	9	3	3	+6	+8.3	30
6	Watford	16	8	5	3	+7	+5.3	29
7	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+6	+0.7	28
8	Hull	15	8	3	4	+3	-4.7	27
9	QPR	15	8	2	5	+7	+8.5	26
10	Preston	16	7	5	4	+4	-1.4	26
11	Southampton	14	7	4	3	+7	+9.2	25
12	Charlton	15	7	4	4	+2	-0.4	25
13	Bristol City	16	7	3	6	+5	+0.3	24
14	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+2	+6.6	24
15	Sheffield United	15	7	2	6	+8	+10.8	23
16	West Brom	15	6	5	4	-1	+8.4	23
17	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+3	+4.5	22
18	Leicester	16	6	4	6	+0	-0.7	22
19	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+5	-0.6	21
20	Derby	16	4	6	6	-4	-1.1	18
21	Norwich	15	5	1	9	-4	-0.4	16
22	Oxford	16	3	6	7	-9	-1.4	15
23	Blackburn	16	3	5	8	-7	+3.7	14
24	Sheffield Weds	16	0	4	12	-26	-14.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	15	8	3	4	+10	-2.8	27
2	Hull	14	7	3	4	+5	-9.2	24
3	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	+2	+5.9	24
4	Coventry	16	6	5	5	+8	+10.3	23
5	Norwich	17	6	5	6	+4	-6.7	23
6	Wrexham	15	6	5	4	+3	-9.3	23
7	Millwall	15	6	5	4	-1	-3.6	23
8	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+0	-0.0	22
9	Stoke	17	6	4	7	+0	-8.0	22
10	Preston	15	5	6	4	+0	-8.1	21
11	Southampton	16	5	5	6	+1	+4.4	20
12	Ipswich	14	5	4	5	+4	+4.5	19
13	Blackburn	15	5	3	7	-6	-0.8	18
14	QPR	16	4	6	6	-8	-6.7	18
15	Leicester	16	4	4	8	-7	-12.8	16
16	Sheffield United	16	5	1	10	-9	+0.2	16
17	Watford	15	3	6	6	-4	+0.4	15
18	Birmingham	16	4	3	9	-11	-1.9	15
19	Swansea	15	4	2	9	-5	-4.2	14
20	Charlton	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.0	14
21	Oxford	16	3	4	9	-7	-8.3	13
22	West Brom	17	3	2	12	-14	-5.5	11
23	Portsmouth	14	2	5	7	-14	-7.5	11
24	Sheffield Weds	15	1	4	10	-18	-17.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.