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Primeira Liga

Referee: J Goncalves

Tondela

U S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Arouca

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 16%

13%

19%

Points per game

0,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

60%

63%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,4

3,5

Scored

0,6

1,1

Conceded

1,8

2,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,67 xG 0,73

29% Possession 71%

5 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 9

5 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 17. · Arouca 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	16	15	1	0	+31	+22.2	46
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+38	+28.4	42
3	Benfica	16	10	6	0	+23	+17.0	36
4	Gil Vicente	17	7	7	3	+10	+4.9	28
5	Sp Braga	16	7	5	4	+13	+11.1	26
6	Guimaraes	17	7	4	6	-4	-3.8	25
7	Famalicao	16	6	5	5	+7	+7.4	23
8	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	-3	-6.4	21
9	Estoril	16	5	5	6	+1	-3.3	20
10	Estrela	16	4	6	6	-4	-3.1	18
11	Rio Ave	16	3	8	5	-9	-13.1	17
12	Alverca	16	5	2	9	-11	-2.2	17
13	Santa Clara	15	4	4	7	-4	+2.6	16
14	Nacional	16	4	4	8	-5	-7.1	16
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-13	-13.6	14
16	Arouca	16	3	5	8	-22	-19.1	14
17	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-18	-6.4	9
18	AVS	16	0	4	12	-30	-15.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+24	+16.6	19
3	Benfica	8	4	4	0	+10	+11.3	16
4	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+5	-0.4	15
5	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	+1	-2.0	15
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.0	14
7	Gil Vicente	8	4	2	2	+4	+3.2	14
8	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.6	13
9	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	+5	+3.5	11
10	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	+1	+4.8	11
11	Alverca	8	3	1	4	-7	+2.3	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	+1	+4.8	9
13	Arouca	9	2	3	4	-9	-8.0	9
14	Nacional	7	2	0	5	-5	-4.1	6
15	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.4	6
16	Casa Pia	8	0	4	4	-8	-8.0	4
17	AVS	8	0	3	5	-9	-4.9	3
18	Tondela	7	0	2	5	-8	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+17	+10.1	24
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+14	+11.8	23
3	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+13	+5.7	20
4	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	+6	+1.7	14
5	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+6	+4.1	12
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.9	12
7	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-4	-8.7	11
8	Nacional	9	2	4	3	+0	-3.0	10
9	Casa Pia	8	3	1	4	-5	-5.6	10
10	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-5	-1.7	10
11	Estrela	8	2	3	3	-5	-7.8	9
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.8	8
13	Alverca	8	2	1	5	-4	-4.5	7
14	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-10	-3.2	7
15	Estoril	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.9	5
16	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
17	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-13	-11.1	5
18	AVS	8	0	1	7	-21	-10.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.