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Primeira Liga
Referee: H Malheiro
Moreirense
T U T U S
2–1
Full-time
Alverca
S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Alverca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
4,5
Scored
1,3
3,7
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+2,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,93 xG 0,97
58% Possession 42%
10 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 2
1 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 5
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Moreirense Alverca
1–0 Guilherme Schettine ⚽
L. Ofori
27′
29′
🟨 Tomás Mendes
Dinis Pinto 🟨
43′
44′
⚽ Marezi 1–1
Half-time 1–1
Kiko 🟨
52′
A. Martinez 🔁
↦ Kiko Bondoso
62′
Bernardo 🔁
↦ C. Teguia
62′
Marcelo 🟨
70′
Rodri 🔁
↦ L. Ofori
73′
74′
🔁 S. Diarra
↦ C. Nuozzi
74′
🔁 Sandro Lima
↦ Marezi
Yan Maranhao 🔁
↦ Guilherme Schettine
82′
82′
🔁 S. Abdulai
↦ T. Mendes
88′
🔁 N. Touaizi
↦ G. Esteves
88′
🔁 T. Leite
↦ Chiquinho
2–1 Yan Maranhao ⚽
D. Pinto
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Moreirense

4-2-3-1
22 Caio G
76 D. Pinto D
44 Marcelo D
26 Maracas D
27 Kiko D
80 L. Ofori M
8 M. Stjepanovic M
7 C. Teguia M
11 Alanzinho M
10 Kiko Bondoso M
95 Guilherme Schettine F
Bench (9)
13 A. Ferreira
16 Mika
17 A. Martinez
66 G. Batista
20 Bernardo
25 A. Assis
21 Rodri
19 J. Jorquera Romero
99 Yan Maranhao

Coach: Vasco Costa

Alverca

3-4-3
13 A. Gomes G
14 S. Baseya D
4 Naves D
33 B. Meupiyou D
22 G. Esteves M
8 Amorim M
16 T. Mendes M
12 I. James M
11 C. Nuozzi F
9 Marezi F
10 Chiquinho F
Bench (9)
23 A. Paulo
2 N. Touaizi
19 T. Leite
21 S. Abdulai
25 S. Diarra
28 G. Cabezas
34 Talisca
88 D. Martins
91 Sandro Lima

Coach: Custodio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,05
🔒
U
3,14
🔒
B
3,52
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,15
🔒
U2,5
1,63
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.