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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Moreirense

S U U S U

1–4

Full-time

Casa Pia

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

47%

27%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 44%

40%

47%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,20 xG 1,25

60% Possession 40%

13 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 24

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 6. · Casa Pia 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+20	+17.1	40
2	Benfica	16	12	3	1	+21	+18.9	39
3	Porto	16	11	2	3	+11	+10.4	35
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+17	+11.8	33
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+8	+1.8	30
6	Moreirense	15	7	5	3	+7	+0.1	26
7	Farense	16	6	3	7	+1	-6.0	21
8	Famalicao	16	4	7	5	-5	-5.3	19
9	Estoril	16	5	2	9	+1	-8.9	17
10	Estrela	16	4	5	7	-6	-4.7	17
11	Boavista	16	4	5	7	-8	-7.6	17
12	Arouca	16	4	4	8	-1	-0.5	16
13	Casa Pia	15	4	4	7	-6	-3.9	16
14	Gil Vicente	16	4	3	9	-4	-6.5	15
15	Rio Ave	16	3	6	7	-6	+4.5	15
16	Portimonense	16	4	3	9	-19	-9.8	15
17	Vizela	16	2	7	7	-8	-3.8	13
18	Chaves	16	3	2	11	-23	-7.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+17	+12.5	27
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+9	+5.7	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+11	+10.9	17
4	Porto	7	5	1	1	+5	+10.2	16
5	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+9	-1.6	15
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+9	+11.6	14
7	Farense	9	4	2	3	+5	+0.3	14
8	Estoril	7	4	1	2	+12	+1.5	13
9	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	+4.3	12
10	Famalicao	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.7	12
11	Moreirense	7	3	2	2	+3	+0.4	11
12	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-4	-3.9	10
13	Estrela	9	3	1	5	-4	-2.4	10
14	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-4	-1.9	8
15	Portimonense	7	2	2	3	-4	-3.7	8
16	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-4	+0.1	7
17	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.3	6
18	Casa Pia	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+10	+8.0	22
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+8	+0.2	19
3	Porto	9	6	1	2	+6	+0.2	19
4	Moreirense	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.3	15
5	Sp Lisbon	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.6	13
6	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.0	12
7	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.6	11
8	Arouca	7	2	2	3	+3	+1.4	8
9	Estrela	7	1	4	2	-2	-2.3	7
10	Vizela	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.5	7
11	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.7	7
12	Farense	7	2	1	4	-4	-6.3	7
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-4	-3.6	7
14	Portimonense	9	2	1	6	-15	-6.1	7
15	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-11	-10.4	4
16	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-19	-7.6	4
17	Rio Ave	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.2	3
18	Gil Vicente	8	0	0	8	-13	-4.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.