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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Rio Ave

T T T S T

0–2

Full-time

Arouca

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 35/1 matches

Win Ø 60%

20%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

31%

100%

Both score Ø 16%

31%

Average goals

1,9

3,0

Scored

0,7

3,0

Conceded

1,2

0,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

23 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	34	26	7	1	+45	85
2	Porto	34	24	8	2	+45	80
3	Benfica	34	23	7	4	+42	76
4	Sp Braga	34	19	7	8	+20	64
5	Pacos Ferreira	34	15	8	11	-1	53
6	Santa Clara	34	13	7	14	+8	46
7	Moreirense	34	10	13	11	-6	43
8	Guimaraes	34	12	7	15	-7	43
9	Famalicao	34	10	10	14	-8	40
10	Belenenses	34	9	13	12	-10	40
11	Gil Vicente	34	11	6	17	-9	39
12	Boavista	34	8	12	14	-10	36
13	Tondela	34	10	6	18	-21	36
14	Portimonense	34	9	8	17	-7	35
15	Maritimo	34	10	5	19	-20	35
16	Rio Ave	35	7	13	15	-18	34
17	Farense	34	7	10	17	-17	31
18	Nacional	34	6	7	21	-29	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	13	4	0	+24	43
2	Porto	17	13	3	1	+25	42
3	Benfica	17	12	3	2	+16	39
4	Sp Braga	17	11	3	3	+12	36
5	Pacos Ferreira	17	10	3	4	+4	33
6	Santa Clara	17	7	5	5	+10	26
7	Tondela	17	8	2	7	-3	26
8	Portimonense	17	6	5	6	+3	23
9	Belenenses	17	6	5	6	-3	23
10	Moreirense	17	4	10	3	+1	22
11	Guimaraes	17	7	1	9	-6	22
12	Famalicao	17	4	7	6	-5	19
13	Boavista	17	5	4	8	-5	19
14	Farense	17	4	6	7	-1	18
15	Rio Ave	17	4	6	7	-6	18
16	Maritimo	17	5	3	9	-11	18
17	Gil Vicente	17	4	4	9	-7	16
18	Nacional	17	4	3	10	-11	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+21	42
2	Porto	17	11	5	1	+20	38
3	Benfica	17	11	4	2	+26	37
4	Sp Braga	17	8	4	5	+8	28
5	Gil Vicente	17	7	2	8	-2	23
6	Guimaraes	17	5	6	6	-1	21
7	Famalicao	17	6	3	8	-3	21
8	Moreirense	17	6	3	8	-7	21
9	Santa Clara	17	6	2	9	-2	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	17	5	5	7	-5	20
11	Boavista	17	3	8	6	-5	17
12	Belenenses	17	3	8	6	-7	17
13	Maritimo	17	5	2	10	-9	17
14	Rio Ave	18	3	7	8	-12	16
15	Farense	17	3	4	10	-16	13
16	Portimonense	17	3	3	11	-10	12
17	Tondela	17	2	4	11	-18	10
18	Nacional	17	2	4	11	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.