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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Porto

U S T S S

1–2

Full-time

Arouca

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 48%

70%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 53%

40%

65%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Arouca 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	21	17	1	3	+45	52
2	Sp Lisbon	20	16	3	1	+29	51
3	Porto	20	14	4	2	+28	46
4	Sp Braga	20	10	6	4	+19	36
5	Guimaraes	21	8	7	6	-1	31
6	Pacos Ferreira	21	8	6	7	+4	30
7	Rio Ave	20	8	4	8	-2	28
8	Vitoria Setubal	21	6	8	7	-6	26
9	Arouca	20	5	10	5	+0	25
10	Belenenses	21	6	7	8	-19	25
11	Estoril	20	6	5	9	-6	23
12	Moreirense	21	6	5	10	-11	23
13	U. Madeira	21	6	5	10	-11	23
14	Maritimo	21	6	4	11	-12	22
15	Nacional	21	5	6	10	-8	21
16	Boavista	21	5	5	11	-12	20
17	Academica	21	4	6	11	-17	18
18	Tondela	21	2	4	15	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Porto	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+13	26
4	Rio Ave	11	7	0	4	+4	21
5	Sp Braga	9	6	2	1	+18	20
6	U. Madeira	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	2	4	+5	17
8	Academica	11	4	4	3	-3	16
9	Belenenses	10	4	4	2	-3	16
10	Nacional	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Arouca	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Guimaraes	11	4	3	4	+2	15
13	Estoril	10	4	3	3	+2	15
14	Maritimo	10	4	2	4	+4	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	7	2	-6	13
16	Moreirense	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+19	25
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+16	25
3	Porto	10	6	2	2	+12	20
4	Sp Braga	11	4	4	3	+1	16
5	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	-3	16
6	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-5	14
7	Vitoria Setubal	10	4	1	5	+0	13
8	Pacos Ferreira	10	3	4	3	-1	13
9	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-6	11
10	Arouca	10	1	7	2	-2	10
11	Belenenses	11	2	3	6	-16	9
12	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-8	8
13	Maritimo	11	2	2	7	-16	8
14	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-6	7
15	Nacional	11	1	3	7	-10	6
16	Tondela	10	1	2	7	-8	5
17	U. Madeira	10	1	2	7	-13	5
18	Academica	10	0	2	8	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.