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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Benfica

S U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Porto

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,3

2,7

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,3

2,7

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

24 Free kicks against 20

4 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Porto 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	7	5	2	0	+9	17
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+11	15
3	Benfica	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Rio Ave	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Sp Lisbon	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Santa Clara	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Guimaraes	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Maritimo	7	3	1	3	-3	10
9	Feirense	7	2	3	2	+1	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
11	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Belenenses	7	1	4	2	-3	7
13	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-5	7
14	Moreirense	7	2	1	4	-8	7
15	Tondela	7	1	3	3	-1	6
16	Nacional	7	1	2	4	-9	5
17	Aves	7	1	1	5	-5	4
18	Portimonense	6	1	1	4	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	9
3	Rio Ave	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+2	6
9	Feirense	4	1	3	0	+2	6
10	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Aves	3	1	1	1	+2	4
12	Chaves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Boavista	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Guimaraes	4	2	0	2	+1	6
5	Belenenses	4	1	3	0	+1	6
6	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
7	Nacional	4	1	2	1	-1	5
8	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Chaves	4	1	0	3	-6	3
14	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-7	3
15	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Portimonense	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	Aves	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.