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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Porto

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Aves

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 46%

80%

11%

Points per game

2,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

60%

78%

Both score Ø 54%

30%

78%

Average goals

2,9

3,8

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

0,5

2,6

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

73% Possession 27%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Aves 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+21	30
2	Porto	10	8	1	1	+19	25
3	Famalicao	9	7	1	1	+7	22
4	Sp Lisbon	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	+7	16
6	Tondela	11	4	4	3	+1	16
7	Boavista	9	3	6	0	+4	15
8	Santa Clara	10	3	4	3	-2	13
9	Rio Ave	10	3	3	4	+1	12
10	Moreirense	11	2	5	4	-2	11
11	Sp Braga	10	3	2	5	-4	11
12	Gil Vicente	11	2	5	4	-4	11
13	Maritimo	11	2	5	4	-5	11
14	Setubal	9	1	6	2	-4	9
15	Vitoria Setubal	9	1	6	2	-4	9
16	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-9	8
17	Portimonense	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Aves	9	1	0	8	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+13	18
2	Porto	5	5	0	0	+16	15
3	Famalicao	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Guimaraes	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Gil Vicente	7	2	5	0	+3	11
6	Boavista	5	2	3	0	+3	9
7	Santa Clara	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+0	7
12	Sp Lisbon	4	2	0	2	+1	6
13	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	+1	5
14	Maritimo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-2	4
16	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Aves	4	1	0	3	-1	3
18	Belenenses	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Portimonense	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Tondela	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Sp Lisbon	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Porto	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+1	10
6	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Boavista	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-3	6
9	Portimonense	6	1	3	2	-4	6
10	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-3	5
11	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-5	5
12	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Sp Braga	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-5	3
15	Setubal	4	0	2	2	-5	2
16	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Gil Vicente	4	0	0	4	-7	0
19	Aves	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.