Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 2 |
Perugia
|
11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 19 |
| 3 |
Crotone
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 |
Chievo
|
11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 5 |
Salernitana
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 6 |
Ascoli
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |
Empoli
|
10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |
Pescara
|
11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 |
Cittadella
|
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Pordenone | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 |
Virtus Entella
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 |
Pisa
|
11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 13 |
| 13 |
Venezia
|
11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 |
Frosinone
|
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 |
Spezia
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 16 |
Cremonese
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Livorno | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |
Juve Stabia
|
11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 |
Cosenza
|
10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Trapani | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Venezia
Cittadella
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Chievo
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.