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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Porto

S S S S U

4–0

Full-time

Aves

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 55%

77%

32%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

55%

42%

Both score Ø 41%

39%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

69% Possession 31%

20 Shots 7

11 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 3

14 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Aves 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	26	3	3	+68	81
2	Porto	31	24	4	3	+45	76
3	Sp Lisbon	31	22	4	5	+33	70
4	Sp Braga	32	20	4	8	+19	64
5	Moreirense	32	15	4	13	-4	49
6	Guimaraes	31	13	6	12	+6	45
7	Rio Ave	32	11	9	12	-3	42
8	Belenenses	31	9	13	9	-1	40
9	Maritimo	32	12	3	17	-16	39
10	Santa Clara	31	10	8	13	-1	38
11	Aves	31	10	6	15	-8	36
12	Portimonense	32	10	6	16	-14	36
13	Boavista	31	10	5	16	-12	35
14	Vitoria Setubal	31	7	12	12	-7	33
15	Chaves	32	8	8	16	-19	32
16	Tondela	31	8	7	16	-15	31
17	Nacional	31	7	6	18	-33	27
18	Feirense	32	2	10	20	-38	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	14	1	1	+25	43
2	Benfica	16	13	2	1	+43	41
3	Porto	15	13	0	2	+27	39
4	Sp Braga	16	12	1	3	+15	37
5	Guimaraes	15	9	3	3	+11	30
6	Boavista	16	9	1	6	+5	28
7	Moreirense	16	8	3	5	+1	27
8	Maritimo	16	8	2	6	+1	26
9	Portimonense	16	7	4	5	+4	25
10	Rio Ave	16	5	6	5	-1	21
11	Tondela	15	6	3	6	-3	21
12	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	+3	20
13	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-2	19
14	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	6	5	+0	18
15	Aves	16	5	3	8	-2	18
16	Chaves	16	4	6	6	-2	18
17	Nacional	16	5	3	8	-6	18
18	Feirense	16	1	6	9	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+25	40
2	Porto	16	11	4	1	+18	37
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+8	27
4	Sp Braga	16	8	3	5	+4	27
5	Moreirense	16	7	1	8	-5	22
6	Rio Ave	16	6	3	7	-2	21
7	Belenenses	16	4	8	4	-4	20
8	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	+1	19
9	Aves	15	5	3	7	-6	18
10	Guimaraes	16	4	3	9	-5	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	6	7	-7	15
12	Chaves	16	4	2	10	-17	14
13	Maritimo	16	4	1	11	-17	13
14	Portimonense	16	3	2	11	-18	11
15	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-12	10
16	Nacional	15	2	3	10	-27	9
17	Boavista	15	1	4	10	-17	7
18	Feirense	16	1	4	11	-25	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.