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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Aston Villa

S U T S U

2–0

Full-time

Wolves

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Wolves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 51%

59%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

72%

68%

Both score Ø 69%

69%

68%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,98 xG 1,49

48% Possession 52%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 5. · Wolves 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	28	20	4	4	+46	+37.8	64
2	Liverpool	28	19	7	2	+39	+28.8	64
3	Man City	28	19	6	3	+35	+29.9	63
4	Tottenham	29	17	5	7	+18	+4.8	56
5	Aston Villa	29	17	5	7	+18	+10.2	56
6	Man United	28	15	2	11	+0	-4.6	47
7	West Ham	30	12	8	10	-5	-12.8	44
8	Newcastle	29	13	4	12	+12	+4.8	43
9	Brighton	28	11	9	8	+6	+7.1	42
10	Wolves	28	12	5	11	-2	-10.3	41
11	Chelsea	28	11	7	10	+2	+12.3	40
12	Fulham	30	11	6	13	-1	-11.7	39
13	Bournemouth	29	10	8	11	-10	-1.9	38
14	Everton	29	8	7	14	-11	+2.3	31
15	Crystal Palace	29	7	9	13	-15	-6.6	30
16	Brentford	29	7	5	17	-13	+0.7	26
17	Nott'm Forest	30	6	8	16	-16	-5.9	26
18	Luton	30	5	7	18	-19	-27.6	22
19	Burnley	30	4	6	20	-34	-25.9	18
20	Sheffield United	29	3	6	20	-50	-31.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+26	+27.2	36
2	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+23	+22.6	35
3	Man City	14	10	4	0	+22	+15.5	34
4	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+11	+7.7	33
5	Newcastle	15	10	2	3	+19	+16.3	32
6	Aston Villa	14	10	1	3	+16	+12.0	31
7	Fulham	15	9	1	5	+14	+2.7	28
8	Brighton	14	7	6	1	+12	+8.1	27
9	Man United	14	8	1	5	+1	+2.6	25
10	West Ham	15	6	6	3	+3	-3.6	24
11	Wolves	14	7	3	4	+1	-4.7	24
12	Chelsea	14	6	4	4	+3	+13.6	22
13	Bournemouth	15	5	5	5	-4	+1.3	20
14	Crystal Palace	14	4	4	6	-1	+2.7	16
15	Nott'm Forest	15	4	4	7	-2	+1.0	16
16	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-5	+2.5	16
17	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
18	Luton	15	3	3	9	-4	-4.1	12
19	Sheffield United	15	2	3	10	-30	-13.6	9
20	Burnley	15	2	2	11	-20	-5.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	9	2	3	+23	+15.2	29
2	Man City	14	9	2	3	+13	+14.3	29
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.8	25
5	Tottenham	14	6	5	3	+7	-2.9	23
6	Man United	14	7	1	6	-1	-7.2	22
7	West Ham	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.2	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
9	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
10	Everton	15	5	3	7	-8	-6.6	18
11	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-3	-5.6	17
12	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-6	-1.0	15
13	Crystal Palace	15	3	5	7	-14	-9.3	14
14	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-7	-11.5	11
15	Fulham	15	2	5	8	-15	-14.4	11
16	Brentford	15	3	1	11	-8	-1.8	10
17	Burnley	15	2	4	9	-14	-20.5	10
18	Nott'm Forest	15	2	4	9	-14	-6.9	10
19	Luton	15	2	4	9	-15	-23.5	10
20	Sheffield United	14	1	3	10	-20	-17.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.