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Bundesliga

Referee: T Reichel

Union Berlin

T U S T T

0–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 20%

26%

13%

Points per game

1,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

48%

78%

Both score Ø 59%

43%

74%

Average goals

2,4

4,0

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,23 xG 1,02

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 14. · Holstein Kiel 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	19	4	1	+52	+42.8	61
2	Leverkusen	24	15	8	1	+27	+22.0	53
3	Ein Frankfurt	24	12	6	6	+13	+6.6	42
4	Mainz	24	12	5	7	+14	+1.5	41
5	Freiburg	23	12	3	8	-2	+0.8	39
6	RB Leipzig	24	10	8	6	+6	-5.2	38
7	Wolfsburg	24	10	7	7	+10	-2.2	37
8	M'gladbach	24	11	4	9	+3	-5.2	37
9	Stuttgart	24	10	6	8	+5	+8.7	36
10	Dortmund	24	10	5	9	+7	+10.6	35
11	Augsburg	23	8	7	8	-8	-8.1	31
12	Werder Bremen	24	8	6	10	-13	-2.0	30
13	Hoffenheim	24	6	7	11	-15	-12.5	25
14	Union Berlin	23	6	6	11	-14	-6.3	24
15	St Pauli	24	6	3	15	-11	-8.1	21
16	Heidenheim	24	4	3	17	-23	-10.5	15
17	Bochum	24	3	6	15	-26	-16.8	15
18	Holstein Kiel	23	3	4	16	-25	-16.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	11	1	0	+32	+29.0	34
2	Leverkusen	12	8	3	1	+14	+13.3	27
3	Freiburg	11	8	1	2	+11	+4.6	25
4	Dortmund	12	7	3	2	+16	+11.5	24
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	7	3	2	+12	+9.8	24
6	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+7	+3.1	22
7	Mainz	12	6	3	3	+6	+5.3	21
8	Stuttgart	13	6	2	5	+7	+9.9	20
9	M'gladbach	12	6	2	4	+6	+0.5	20
10	Augsburg	11	5	3	3	+2	+3.1	18
11	Union Berlin	11	4	4	3	+0	+2.9	16
12	Wolfsburg	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.9	14
13	Werder Bremen	12	3	4	5	-6	+1.3	13
14	Bochum	12	3	3	6	-7	-2.7	12
15	Hoffenheim	12	3	3	6	-8	-3.8	12
16	Holstein Kiel	12	3	1	8	-13	-7.1	10
17	St Pauli	12	2	3	7	-7	-1.8	9
18	Heidenheim	12	2	1	9	-14	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	3	1	+20	+13.8	27
2	Leverkusen	12	7	5	0	+13	+8.7	26
3	Wolfsburg	12	7	2	3	+10	-3.1	23
4	Mainz	12	6	2	4	+8	-3.8	20
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	3	4	+1	-3.3	18
6	M'gladbach	12	5	2	5	-3	-5.7	17
7	Werder Bremen	12	5	2	5	-7	-3.3	17
8	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	-1	-8.3	16
9	Stuttgart	11	4	4	3	-2	-1.2	16
10	Freiburg	12	4	2	6	-13	-3.7	14
11	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-7	-8.8	13
12	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-10	-11.3	13
13	St Pauli	12	4	0	8	-4	-6.3	12
14	Dortmund	12	3	2	7	-9	-0.9	11
15	Heidenheim	12	2	2	8	-9	-5.8	8
16	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-14	-9.2	8
17	Holstein Kiel	11	0	3	8	-12	-9.1	3
18	Bochum	12	0	3	9	-19	-14.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.