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Eredivisie

Referee: Edwin Van de Graaf

Vitesse

S U T S U

3–2

Full-time

Excelsior

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitesse Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,8

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

3,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-2,5

This season — Eredivisie · 15/17 matches

Win Ø 29%

33%

24%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

53%

71%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

59%

Average goals

2,6

4,0

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

2,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitesse 8. · Excelsior 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	16	0	1	+52	48
2	Ajax	17	15	1	1	+52	46
3	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+15	36
4	Heracles	16	8	2	6	+0	26
5	Utrecht	15	7	4	4	+6	25
6	AZ Alkmaar	17	7	4	6	+4	25
7	VVV Venlo	17	6	5	6	-3	23
8	Vitesse	15	5	5	5	+1	20
9	For Sittard	17	5	5	7	-1	20
10	Heerenveen	17	5	5	7	-3	20
11	Den Haag	17	5	5	7	-11	20
12	Willem II	17	5	4	8	-8	19
13	FC Emmen	17	4	5	8	-17	17
14	Excelsior	17	4	4	9	-22	16
15	Groningen	16	4	3	9	-6	15
16	Zwolle	17	4	3	10	-13	15
17	NAC Breda	17	4	3	10	-17	15
18	De Graafschap	17	3	3	11	-29	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+34	27
2	Feyenoord	9	8	0	1	+13	24
3	Ajax	8	7	1	0	+30	22
4	Heracles	8	6	0	2	+8	18
5	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	16
6	VVV Venlo	8	4	3	1	+7	15
7	NAC Breda	9	4	1	4	-1	13
8	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	For Sittard	9	3	3	3	+2	12
10	Vitesse	6	3	2	1	+2	11
11	De Graafschap	9	3	1	5	-6	10
12	Den Haag	8	2	3	3	-6	9
13	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-10	9
14	Groningen	8	2	1	5	-1	7
15	Heerenveen	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	FC Emmen	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	Willem II	8	1	2	5	-6	5
18	Zwolle	9	1	2	6	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	8	0	1	+22	24
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+4	14
4	Willem II	9	4	2	3	-2	14
5	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+0	13
6	Feyenoord	8	3	3	2	+2	12
7	Den Haag	9	3	2	4	-5	11
8	FC Emmen	8	3	2	3	-9	11
9	Zwolle	8	3	1	4	-6	10
10	Vitesse	9	2	3	4	-1	9
11	Utrecht	7	2	3	2	-3	9
12	For Sittard	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Groningen	8	2	2	4	-5	8
14	Heracles	8	2	2	4	-8	8
15	VVV Venlo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
16	Excelsior	8	2	1	5	-12	7
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-16	2
18	De Graafschap	8	0	2	6	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.