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Superligaen

Referee: M Krogh

Aarhus

U S S T U

2–3

Full-time

Midtjylland

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aarhus Midtjylland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Superligaen · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

39%

61%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

33%

61%

Both score Ø 59%

56%

61%

Average goals

2,1

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%

22 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Aarhus 5. · Midtjylland 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brondby	19	12	4	3	+20	+5.3	40
2	FC Copenhagen	18	11	3	4	+16	+13.6	36
3	Midtjylland	18	11	3	4	+13	+10.6	36
4	Nordsjaelland	18	8	6	4	+13	+8.2	30
5	Aarhus	18	7	8	3	+4	+4.7	29
6	Silkeborg	19	8	3	8	+2	+5.8	27
7	Randers FC	19	5	7	7	-10	-2.5	22
8	Odense	19	5	5	9	-6	-7.1	20
9	Lyngby	19	5	5	9	-8	-2.6	20
10	Viborg	19	5	5	9	-13	-5.8	20
11	Vejle	19	4	6	9	-3	-13.8	18
12	Hvidovre IF	19	1	5	13	-28	-16.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Midtjylland	9	6	2	1	+10	+5.9	20
2	Brondby	9	6	1	2	+10	+6.3	19
3	Nordsjaelland	9	5	3	1	+9	+5.9	18
4	Silkeborg	10	5	2	3	+4	+6.4	17
5	FC Copenhagen	9	5	1	3	+7	+9.9	16
6	Viborg	9	4	3	2	+1	-1.9	15
7	Aarhus	8	4	2	2	+0	+3.0	14
8	Lyngby	9	3	4	2	+3	+1.4	13
9	Randers FC	10	3	4	3	-5	+1.2	13
10	Vejle	10	3	3	4	+1	-3.5	12
11	Odense	10	0	3	7	-12	-1.9	3
12	Hvidovre IF	10	0	2	8	-18	-4.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brondby	10	6	3	1	+10	-1.0	21
2	FC Copenhagen	9	6	2	1	+9	+3.7	20
3	Odense	9	5	2	2	+6	-5.2	17
4	Midtjylland	9	5	1	3	+3	+4.7	16
5	Aarhus	10	3	6	1	+4	+1.7	15
6	Nordsjaelland	9	3	3	3	+4	+2.3	12
7	Silkeborg	9	3	1	5	-2	-0.6	10
8	Randers FC	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.7	9
9	Lyngby	10	2	1	7	-11	-4.0	7
10	Vejle	9	1	3	5	-4	-10.3	6
11	Hvidovre IF	9	1	3	5	-10	-11.5	6
12	Viborg	10	1	2	7	-14	-4.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.