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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Real Madrid

S U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Sevilla

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Sevilla

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 48%

76%

20%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

60%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,2

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 0,90

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Sevilla 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	25	19	5	1	+37	+23.3	62
2	Barcelona	26	17	6	3	+22	+31.2	57
3	Girona	25	17	5	3	+22	+7.0	56
4	Ath Madrid	26	16	4	6	+24	+17.1	52
5	Ath Bilbao	26	14	7	5	+20	+15.7	49
6	Betis	26	10	12	4	+5	-1.1	42
7	Sociedad	26	10	10	6	+9	+4.6	40
8	Valencia	25	10	6	9	+0	-1.6	36
9	Las Palmas	26	10	6	10	+0	-15.8	36
10	Getafe	26	8	10	8	-5	-8.1	34
11	Osasuna	26	9	6	11	-7	-4.3	33
12	Alaves	26	7	8	11	-7	+1.6	29
13	Villarreal	26	7	8	11	-10	-5.5	29
14	Vallecano	25	5	10	10	-11	-2.1	25
15	Sevilla	25	5	9	11	-7	-11.8	24
16	Mallorca	26	4	12	10	-11	-4.8	24
17	Celta	26	4	9	13	-10	-6.3	21
18	Cadiz	26	2	12	12	-20	-15.2	18
19	Granada	25	2	8	15	-22	-13.2	14
20	Almeria	26	0	9	17	-29	-10.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	12	1	0	+20	+15.9	37
2	Real Madrid	12	10	2	0	+23	+18.4	32
3	Ath Bilbao	13	10	2	1	+20	+15.7	32
4	Barcelona	14	10	1	3	+13	+16.6	31
5	Girona	12	9	2	1	+16	+6.0	29
6	Betis	14	7	6	1	+9	+7.4	27
7	Valencia	12	7	3	2	+9	+4.7	24
8	Getafe	12	7	3	2	+4	-0.9	24
9	Las Palmas	13	6	4	3	+7	-4.8	22
10	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.6	20
11	Alaves	13	5	3	5	-2	+5.7	18
12	Osasuna	13	5	3	5	-3	+1.4	18
13	Mallorca	13	3	7	3	+0	-1.1	16
14	Sevilla	13	3	5	5	-2	-3.5	14
15	Villarreal	13	3	4	6	-4	+3.3	13
16	Cadiz	13	2	7	4	-6	+2.8	13
17	Granada	13	2	6	5	-6	-3.2	12
18	Celta	13	2	4	7	-8	+3.3	10
19	Vallecano	12	1	6	5	-10	-2.1	9
20	Almeria	13	0	7	6	-11	+0.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	9	3	1	+14	+4.9	30
2	Girona	13	8	3	2	+6	+1.0	27
3	Barcelona	12	7	5	0	+9	+14.6	26
4	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+5	+2.0	20
5	Ath Bilbao	13	4	5	4	+0	-0.0	17
6	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.0	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	4	5	-6	-8.7	16
8	Ath Madrid	13	4	3	6	+4	+1.2	15
9	Osasuna	13	4	3	6	-4	-5.7	15
10	Betis	12	3	6	3	-4	-8.5	15
11	Las Palmas	13	4	2	7	-7	-11.0	14
12	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-9	-6.3	12
13	Celta	13	2	5	6	-2	-9.6	11
14	Alaves	13	2	5	6	-5	-4.2	11
15	Sevilla	12	2	4	6	-5	-8.3	10
16	Getafe	14	1	7	6	-9	-7.2	10
17	Mallorca	13	1	5	7	-11	-3.7	8
18	Cadiz	13	0	5	8	-14	-18.1	5
19	Granada	12	0	2	10	-16	-10.0	2
20	Almeria	13	0	2	11	-18	-10.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.