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League Cup

Referee: C Kavanagh

Chelsea

T T S S U

0–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,5

5,0

Scored

1,7

3,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 74%

67%

80%

Points per game

2,2

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

33%

80%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,6

Scored

2,0

2,6

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

19 Shots 24

9 Shots on target 11

4 Blocked shots 7

10 Goalkeeper saves 9

6 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Liverpool 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	6	0	1	+5	18
2	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	13
4	Everton	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Port Vale	5	3	1	1	+0	10
6	Blackburn	4	3	0	1	+10	9
7	Fulham	6	2	3	1	+2	9
8	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	6
12	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
15	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
16	West Ham	3	2	0	1	-1	6
17	Mansfield Town	4	1	2	1	+1	5
18	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
19	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
20	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	Lincoln	3	1	1	1	+1	4
23	Sutton Utd	3	1	1	1	+0	4
24	Cardiff	3	1	1	1	-1	4
25	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+4	3
26	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
27	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Peterborough	3	0	3	0	+0	3
32	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
42	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
43	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
44	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
45	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
46	Bradford	3	0	2	1	-2	2
47	Salford City	3	0	2	1	-4	2
48	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
62	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
63	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
64	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Port Vale	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Fulham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Mansfield Town	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
14	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
27	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
28	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
29	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Salford City	2	0	1	1	-4	1
42	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Bradford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	5	0	1	+4	15
2	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+6	3
11	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Sutton Utd	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
23	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
24	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
25	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
26	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
27	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.