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Ligue 1

Referee: P Gaillouste

Lens

S S U U U

4–0

Full-time

Nantes

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

22%

44%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,91 xG 1,01

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 15. · Nantes 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	6	4	0	+7	+7.0	22
2	Monaco	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
3	Paris SG	9	5	3	1	+13	+12.3	18
4	Reims	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.9	17
5	Lille	9	4	3	2	+2	+4.3	15
6	Brest	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.3	15
7	Nantes	9	4	2	3	+1	-4.5	14
8	Marseille	9	3	3	3	+0	+7.4	12
9	Rennes	9	2	5	2	+3	+4.6	11
10	Toulouse	9	2	5	2	+1	-7.8	11
11	Le Havre	9	2	4	3	-2	-5.2	10
12	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-5	-7.1	10
13	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	-6	-3.0	10
14	Montpellier	8	2	3	3	+1	+1.9	9
15	Lens	9	2	3	4	-5	+0.6	9
16	Metz	9	2	2	5	-8	-8.1	8
17	Clermont	9	1	2	6	-7	-6.3	5
18	Lyon	9	0	3	6	-11	-7.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+2.8	12
2	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+8	+4.8	10
3	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+6	+5.1	10
4	Lille	4	3	0	1	+3	+3.8	9
5	Nice	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.1	9
6	Reims	5	3	0	2	+2	+4.3	9
7	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.5	8
8	Nantes	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.7	8
9	Brest	4	2	2	0	+2	+5.2	8
10	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+1	-3.6	8
11	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
12	Le Havre	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
13	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+3	-1.9	6
14	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
15	Metz	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Lyon	5	0	2	3	-7	-3.1	2
18	Clermont	5	0	1	4	-5	-4.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	5	4	1	0	+4	+2.8	13
2	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+7.5	8
3	Monaco	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.5	8
4	Reims	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.4	8
5	Montpellier	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.2	7
6	Brest	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.9	7
7	Lille	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.5	6
8	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.8	6
9	Metz	5	2	0	3	-6	-6.8	6
10	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.9	5
11	Clermont	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
12	Lens	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.9	4
13	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.0	3
14	Le Havre	4	0	3	1	-3	-6.7	3
15	Strasbourg	4	1	0	3	-7	-5.0	3
16	Lorient	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.5	2
17	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.