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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Southampton

S S U S U

3–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 42%

46%

38%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

77%

31%

Both score Ø 62%

77%

46%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,29 xG 0,60

71% Possession 29%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 4. · Birmingham 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	13	12	0	1	+20	+12.1	36
2	Ipswich	12	10	1	1	+13	+8.1	31
3	Preston	13	6	4	3	-2	-3.1	22
4	Southampton	13	6	3	4	-3	+2.1	21
5	West Brom	13	5	5	3	+6	+0.9	20
6	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	+5	-0.2	20
7	Hull	13	5	5	3	+3	-0.3	20
8	Middlesbrough	13	6	2	5	+1	+8.6	20
9	Sunderland	13	6	1	6	+6	+4.0	19
10	Leeds	12	5	4	3	+5	+8.7	19
11	Blackburn	13	6	1	6	-2	-0.3	19
12	Birmingham	13	5	3	5	+1	+2.0	18
13	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	+1	-0.7	18
14	Norwich	12	5	2	5	+1	-1.1	17
15	Watford	13	4	4	5	+0	+1.3	16
16	Millwall	13	4	4	5	-3	-4.3	16
17	Stoke	13	5	1	7	-4	-2.0	16
18	Plymouth	13	4	3	6	+2	-4.5	15
19	Swansea	13	4	3	6	+1	-0.2	15
20	Coventry	13	3	6	4	+1	+5.2	15
21	Huddersfield	13	3	5	5	-10	-4.6	14
22	Rotherham	12	2	3	7	-10	-13.8	9
23	QPR	13	2	2	9	-15	-10.3	8
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	3	10	-17	-7.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	7	6	0	1	+8	+5.2	18
2	Ipswich	6	5	0	1	+8	+7.0	15
3	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
4	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.6	14
5	Preston	7	4	2	1	+0	-1.8	14
6	Cardiff	6	4	1	1	+5	+1.8	13
7	Plymouth	7	4	0	3	+7	-0.9	12
8	Leeds	6	3	3	0	+5	+7.6	12
9	Norwich	6	4	0	2	+3	+1.8	12
10	Stoke	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.3	12
11	Watford	7	3	2	2	+5	+4.0	11
12	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.0	10
13	Middlesbrough	6	3	1	2	+1	+5.2	10
14	Sunderland	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.7	9
15	Blackburn	6	3	0	3	-3	+0.5	9
16	Rotherham	6	2	2	2	+1	-5.2	8
17	Swansea	7	2	2	3	+0	-0.2	8
18	Bristol City	7	2	2	3	+0	+0.3	8
19	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.8	8
20	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-6	-2.8	8
21	Hull	6	1	4	1	+1	+0.6	7
22	Millwall	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.7	7
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	2	4	-6	-2.3	2
24	QPR	5	0	1	4	-9	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	6	6	0	0	+12	+6.9	18
2	Ipswich	6	5	1	0	+5	+1.1	16
3	Hull	7	4	1	2	+2	-0.9	13
4	Southampton	7	4	1	2	-2	-0.7	13
5	Sunderland	7	3	1	3	+4	+3.3	10
6	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+1	-0.8	10
7	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.0	10
8	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.4	10
9	Millwall	6	2	3	1	+1	-2.7	9
10	Preston	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.3	8
11	Swansea	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.0	7
12	Cardiff	7	2	1	4	+0	-2.0	7
13	Leeds	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.1	7
14	QPR	8	2	1	5	-6	-7.1	7
15	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	-1.9	6
16	Huddersfield	6	1	3	2	-4	-1.9	6
17	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-2	-3.0	5
18	Coventry	7	1	2	4	-3	+1.3	5
19	Watford	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.6	5
20	Birmingham	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.6	4
21	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-5	-0.7	4
22	Plymouth	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.6	3
23	Rotherham	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.6	1
24	Sheffield Weds	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.