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KNVB Beker

Referee: B Nijhuis

Excelsior

S T T T S

1–4

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

44% Possession 56%

10 Shots 18

8 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

1 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blauw Geel	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	De Graafschap	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Hercules	3	2	0	1	+4	6
4	De Treffers	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	ADO '20	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Den Haag	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	URK	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Spakenburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	NAC Breda	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	HV & CV Quick	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Sportlust '46	3	2	0	1	-1	6
12	Staphorst	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Hoek	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Kozakken Boys	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Volendam	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Cambuur	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	OFC Oostzaan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Den Bosch	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Almere City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	FC Emmen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Katwijk	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	VVV Venlo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Excelsior '31	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Groene Ster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Dongen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	TEC	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	FC Eindhoven	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	GVVV Veenendaal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Telstar	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Rijnvogels	2	1	0	1	-2	3
42	AFC Amsterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Hsc 21	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Roda	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	SVV Scheveningen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Ijsselmeervogels	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	GVV Unitas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	RKAV Volendam	2	0	1	1	-2	1
51	DEM	2	0	1	1	-3	1
52	Harkemase Boys	2	0	1	1	-4	1
53	VVOG	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	OJC Rosmalen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	ASWH	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Quick Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Gemert	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	OSS '20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Excelsior Maassluis	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Dovo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	ACV	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	UNA	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Sparta Nijkerk	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Koninklijke HFC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	HHC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	JOS Watergraafsmeer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Noordwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Barendrecht	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	FC Lisse	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Vvsb	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Dordrecht	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	UDI '19	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	Ter Leede	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	MVV	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Baronie	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	De Treffers	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	ADO '20	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Blauw Geel	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Hercules	2	1	0	1	+3	3
6	Staphorst	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	OFC Oostzaan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Almere City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	URK	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Spakenburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Katwijk	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	NAC Breda	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	TEC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	FC Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Groene Ster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	GVVV Veenendaal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Rijnvogels	2	1	0	1	-2	3
21	AFC Amsterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Hsc 21	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Roda	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	SVV Scheveningen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Ijsselmeervogels	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	GVV Unitas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Kozakken Boys	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Excelsior '31	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	OJC Rosmalen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	ASWH	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Quick Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Gemert	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	OSS '20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Excelsior Maassluis	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Dongen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Dovo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Koninklijke HFC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	HHC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Hoek	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	RKAV Volendam	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	JOS Watergraafsmeer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	DEM	1	0	0	1	-3	0
46	HV & CV Quick	1	0	0	1	-3	0
47	FC Lisse	1	0	0	1	-3	0
48	Dordrecht	1	0	0	1	-3	0
49	Sportlust '46	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Harkemase Boys	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	De Graafschap	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	HV & CV Quick	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Den Haag	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Sportlust '46	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Hoek	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Volendam	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Blauw Geel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Cambuur	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Den Bosch	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Kozakken Boys	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	URK	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Excelsior '31	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Dongen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Hercules	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	FC Emmen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	VVV Venlo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Spakenburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	NAC Breda	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Telstar	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	RKAV Volendam	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Harkemase Boys	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	DEM	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Staphorst	2	0	1	1	-2	1
33	VVOG	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	TEC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	ACV	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	UNA	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Sparta Nijkerk	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Noordwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Barendrecht	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-3	0
47	Vvsb	1	0	0	1	-3	0
48	UDI '19	1	0	0	1	-4	0
49	Ter Leede	1	0	0	1	-4	0
50	MVV	1	0	0	1	-4	0
51	Baronie	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.