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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Celta

U T S U T

1–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 31%

22%

39%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 45%

56%

33%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,61 xG 0,23

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 19. · Ath Bilbao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	15	2	1	+31	-0.3	47
2	Real Madrid	17	13	2	2	+22	-0.1	41
3	Sociedad	18	12	2	4	+10	+0.8	38
4	Ath Madrid	19	10	4	5	+12	+4.2	34
5	Villarreal	18	9	4	5	+8	+2.3	31
6	Betis	18	9	4	5	+6	-0.2	31
7	Osasuna	19	8	4	7	+0	-2.2	28
8	Ath Bilbao	18	7	5	6	+6	+0.1	26
9	Vallecano	18	7	5	6	+2	-0.8	26
10	Mallorca	19	7	4	8	-3	-1.5	25
11	Almeria	19	6	4	9	-6	+0.9	22
12	Girona	19	5	6	8	-3	-2.4	21
13	Sevilla	19	5	6	8	-5	+4.1	21
14	Valencia	18	5	5	8	+4	+0.3	20
15	Espanol	19	4	8	7	-6	+0.1	20
16	Valladolid	19	6	2	11	-14	-2.8	20
17	Cadiz	19	4	7	8	-15	-0.1	19
18	Getafe	19	4	5	10	-10	-0.8	17
19	Celta	18	4	5	9	-12	-0.0	17
20	Elche	19	0	6	13	-27	-1.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	7	2	0	+18	-0.4	23
2	Villarreal	8	6	1	1	+8	+2.3	19
3	Almeria	10	6	1	3	+5	+1.3	19
4	Osasuna	10	6	0	4	+3	-1.4	18
5	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+9	–	17
6	Betis	8	5	2	1	+7	–	17
7	Ath Bilbao	10	5	2	3	+6	+0.1	17
8	Sociedad	9	5	2	2	+2	–	17
9	Valladolid	10	5	1	4	+0	+0.1	16
10	Girona	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.1	15
11	Valencia	10	4	2	4	+7	+0.4	14
12	Ath Madrid	9	4	2	3	+5	+2.9	14
13	Vallecano	9	4	2	3	+2	-0.8	14
14	Mallorca	9	4	2	3	+1	+0.0	14
15	Sevilla	10	3	3	4	-2	+4.1	12
16	Cadiz	10	2	5	3	-6	+1.5	11
17	Celta	9	2	4	3	-1	–	10
18	Espanol	9	2	3	4	-4	+1.4	9
19	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-4	-1.2	9
20	Elche	9	0	3	6	-10	+0.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	+13	-0.1	24
2	Barcelona	9	8	0	1	+13	+0.1	24
3	Sociedad	9	7	0	2	+8	+0.8	21
4	Ath Madrid	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.4	20
5	Betis	10	4	2	4	-1	-0.2	14
6	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	+0	–	12
7	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	+0	–	12
8	Espanol	10	2	5	3	-2	-1.3	11
9	Mallorca	10	3	2	5	-4	-1.5	11
10	Osasuna	9	2	4	3	-3	-0.8	10
11	Ath Bilbao	8	2	3	3	+0	–	9
12	Sevilla	9	2	3	4	-3	–	9
13	Getafe	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.4	8
14	Cadiz	9	2	2	5	-9	-1.6	8
15	Celta	9	2	1	6	-11	-0.0	7
16	Valencia	8	1	3	4	-3	-0.1	6
17	Girona	9	1	3	5	-4	-2.3	6
18	Valladolid	9	1	1	7	-14	-2.9	4
19	Almeria	9	0	3	6	-11	-0.4	3
20	Elche	10	0	3	7	-17	-2.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.