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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Lazio

T U S S S

1–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

58%

32%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 45%

37%

53%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,94 xG 1,38

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 6. · Fiorentina 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	16	2	1	+32	+1.0	50
2	Inter	20	13	1	6	+14	+2.0	40
3	Atalanta	20	11	5	4	+16	+0.1	38
4	Juventus	20	11	5	4	+13	+1.3	38
5	Milan	20	11	5	4	+8	-3.1	38
6	Lazio	19	11	4	4	+20	+2.4	37
7	Roma	19	11	4	4	+9	+1.7	37
8	Udinese	19	7	7	5	+6	+0.1	28
9	Torino	20	7	6	7	-1	-0.2	27
10	Bologna	20	7	5	8	-4	+0.5	26
11	Empoli	20	6	8	6	-5	-1.0	26
12	Monza	20	7	4	9	-3	-0.4	25
13	Fiorentina	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.7	23
14	Salernitana	20	5	6	9	-13	-1.5	21
15	Lecce	20	4	8	8	-5	+0.9	20
16	Sassuolo	20	5	5	10	-8	+0.8	20
17	Spezia	20	4	6	10	-15	-2.9	18
18	Verona	19	3	3	13	-14	-0.3	12
19	Sampdoria	20	2	3	15	-26	-1.1	9
20	Cremonese	20	0	8	12	-20	-0.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	8	1	0	+19	–	25
2	Juventus	11	7	3	1	+16	+1.3	24
3	Inter	10	8	0	2	+16	+0.6	24
4	Milan	10	7	1	2	+8	-0.8	22
5	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+11	+2.4	20
6	Bologna	11	5	4	2	+7	+0.5	19
7	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+8	+1.0	17
8	Roma	9	5	1	3	+5	–	16
9	Empoli	10	4	3	3	+0	-0.4	15
10	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.7	15
11	Monza	10	4	2	4	+3	-0.0	14
12	Udinese	9	3	4	2	+5	–	13
13	Salernitana	10	3	3	4	+1	-1.0	12
14	Torino	9	3	3	3	+1	–	12
15	Spezia	10	2	6	2	-1	-1.7	12
16	Sassuolo	9	3	2	4	+1	–	11
17	Lecce	10	2	5	3	-1	+0.6	11
18	Verona	10	3	0	7	-5	-0.3	9
19	Cremonese	10	0	3	7	-12	-1.4	3
20	Sampdoria	10	0	2	8	-14	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	1	1	+13	+1.0	25
2	Atalanta	10	6	3	1	+8	-0.9	21
3	Roma	10	6	3	1	+4	+1.7	21
4	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+9	–	17
5	Milan	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.4	16
6	Inter	10	5	1	4	-2	+1.4	16
7	Udinese	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.1	15
8	Torino	11	4	3	4	-2	-0.2	15
9	Juventus	9	4	2	3	-3	–	14
10	Empoli	10	2	5	3	-5	-0.6	11
11	Monza	10	3	2	5	-6	-0.4	11
12	Lecce	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.3	9
13	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	+0.8	9
14	Salernitana	10	2	3	5	-14	-0.6	9
15	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-3	–	8
16	Bologna	9	2	1	6	-11	–	7
17	Sampdoria	10	2	1	7	-12	-1.0	7
18	Spezia	10	2	0	8	-14	-1.1	6
19	Cremonese	10	0	5	5	-8	+0.6	5
20	Verona	9	0	3	6	-9	–	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.