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Coupe de France
Referee: P Gaillouste
Concarneau
T S U S S
3–5
Full-time
Nantes
U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Concarneau Nantes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,2
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
2,2
0,7
Conceded
1,3
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

44% Possession 56%
14 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 0
1 Offside 5
9 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Laval 3 3 0 0 +13 9
2 Reims 3 3 0 0 +9 9
3 Troyes 3 3 0 0 +7 9
4 Chantilly 3 3 0 0 +7 9
5 Montpellier 3 3 0 0 +5 9
6 Bayeux 3 3 0 0 +3 9
7 Sochaux 3 2 1 0 +8 7
8 Bastia 3 2 1 0 +7 7
9 Nancy 3 2 1 0 +6 7
10 Grenoble 3 2 1 0 +4 7
11 Les Herbiers 3 2 1 0 +3 7
12 Istres 3 2 1 0 +3 7
13 St Etienne 2 2 0 0 +12 6
14 St Maur Lusitanos 3 2 0 1 +9 6
15 Amiens 2 2 0 0 +7 6
16 Olympique Marcquois 3 2 0 1 +5 6
17 Pontivy GSI 3 2 0 1 +5 6
18 Feignies-Aulnoye 3 2 0 1 +4 6
19 Guingamp 3 2 0 1 +4 6
20 Orleans 2 2 0 0 +4 6
21 Dieppe 2 2 0 0 +4 6
22 Concarneau 2 2 0 0 +4 6
23 Lyon Duchere 3 2 0 1 +3 6
24 Canet Roussillon 3 2 0 1 +3 6
25 Bourg-en-bresse 01 2 2 0 0 +3 6
26 Bordeaux 2 2 0 0 +2 6
27 Le Puy Foot 2 2 0 0 +2 6
28 Le Mans 3 1 2 0 +1 5
29 SA Mérignac 3 1 2 0 +1 5
30 Dunkerque 2 1 1 0 +5 4
31 Chauvigny 2 1 1 0 +4 4
32 Aubervilliers 2 1 1 0 +3 4
33 Mulhouse 2 1 1 0 +3 4
34 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 2 1 1 0 +3 4
35 Feurs 2 1 1 0 +2 4
36 Granville 2 1 1 0 +2 4
37 Romorantin 2 1 1 0 +2 4
38 Red Star 2 1 1 0 +2 4
39 Périgny 3 1 1 1 +1 4
40 Poitiers 2 1 1 0 +1 4
41 Marmande 2 1 1 0 +1 4
42 Les Sables-d'Olonne 2 1 1 0 +1 4
43 Montreuil 2 1 1 0 +1 4
44 Raon l'Etape 3 1 1 1 +0 4
45 Vendée Fontenay 3 1 1 1 -1 4
46 Biesheim 3 1 1 1 -2 4
47 Freyming 3 1 1 1 -2 4
48 Croix Football IC 3 1 1 1 -3 4
49 Gosier 3 1 1 1 -6 4
50 Lorient 1 1 0 0 +7 3
51 Ancienne Château-Gontier 2 1 0 1 +5 3
52 Paris SG 1 1 0 0 +4 3
53 Stade Briochin 2 1 0 1 +3 3
54 Racing Besançon 2 1 0 1 +3 3
55 Paris FC 1 1 0 0 +3 3
56 Metz 1 1 0 0 +3 3
57 Carnoux 2 1 0 1 +2 3
58 MJEP Cormontreuil 2 1 0 1 +2 3
59 Lens 1 1 0 0 +2 3
60 Chalon 2 1 0 1 +2 3
61 Sarreguemines 2 1 0 1 +1 3
62 Stade Plabennec 2 1 0 1 +1 3
63 Rodez 2 1 0 1 +1 3
64 Pau FC 2 1 0 1 +1 3
65 Toulouse 1 1 0 0 +1 3
66 Lille 1 1 0 0 +1 3
67 Mazeres 2 1 0 1 +0 3
68 Annecy 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Avranches 3 0 3 0 +0 3
70 Bondues 2 1 0 1 +0 3
71 Union Saint-Jean 2 1 0 1 +0 3
72 Yvetot 2 1 0 1 +0 3
73 Chateauroux 2 1 0 1 -1 3
74 Montceau 2 1 0 1 -1 3
75 Beaucouzé 2 1 0 1 -1 3
76 Torcy 2 1 0 1 -2 3
77 Reims Sainte-Anne 2 1 0 1 -3 3
78 Abbeville 2 1 0 1 -4 3
79 Saint-Pauloise 2 1 0 1 -5 3
80 Oissel 2 0 2 0 +0 2
81 Villeneuve-la-Garenne 2 0 2 0 +0 2
82 Hauts Lyonnais 2 0 2 0 +0 2
83 Rhone-Vallee 2 0 2 0 +0 2
84 Steenvoorde 2 0 2 0 +0 2
85 Saint-Malo 2 0 2 0 +0 2
86 Saint-Cyr Collonges 2 0 2 0 +0 2
87 Blois 3 0 2 1 -1 2
88 Stade Béthunois 3 0 2 1 -2 2
89 Nord Lozère 1 0 1 0 +0 1
90 Boulogne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
91 Quevilly Rouen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
92 Racing Colombes 92 1 0 1 0 +0 1
93 Fleury 91 1 0 1 0 +0 1
94 Pontarlier 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 Etoile Matoury 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Wittenheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Andrézieux 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 Brest 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Vitré 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Loon-Plage 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Saint-Meziery 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Grasse 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Villars-l'Isle 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Chambly Thelle FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Ivry 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Etoile Bobigny 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Saint-Brice Courcelles 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Pen Hir 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Épernay 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Clermont 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Drancy 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Gobelins 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Angers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 Colomiers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 Sablé 1 0 1 0 +0 1
116 Chamalières 1 0 1 0 +0 1
117 Thonon Évian 1 0 1 0 +0 1
118 Aubagne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
119 Eveil 1 0 1 0 +0 1
120 Mauguio Carnon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
121 Le Geldar 2 0 1 1 -1 1
122 Plouvorn 2 0 1 1 -1 1
123 Selongey 2 0 1 1 -1 1
124 Beauvais 2 0 1 1 -1 1
125 APM Metz 2 0 1 1 -2 1
126 UF Touraine 2 0 1 1 -2 1
127 Seyssinet-Pariset 2 0 1 1 -2 1
128 Bogny 2 0 1 1 -3 1
129 Espoir Ste Luce 2 0 1 1 -4 1
130 Sarre Union 2 0 1 1 -6 1
131 Ecotay Moingt 2 0 1 1 -10 1
132 Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Moulien 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Caen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Seignosse Capbreton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 ES Cappelle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Cannes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Saint-Colomban Locminé 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 L'Etrat La Tour 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Caen PTT 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Lapalisse 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 SS Allinges 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 Boé Bon Encontre 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 ASPTT Dijon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 OCPAM 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 Angoulême 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 FC 2 Rives 82 1 0 0 1 -1 0
149 Bandrele 1 0 0 1 -1 0
150 Montmorillon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
151 Dominicaine 1 0 0 1 -1 0
152 Savigneux Montbrison 1 0 0 1 -2 0
153 Furiani-Agliani 1 0 0 1 -2 0
154 Orvault SF 1 0 0 1 -2 0
155 Dinan Léhon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
156 Lavaur 1 0 0 1 -2 0
157 Quetigny 1 0 0 1 -2 0
158 Trélissac 1 0 0 1 -2 0
159 Biars-Bretenoux 1 0 0 1 -2 0
160 Agde 1 0 0 1 -2 0
161 Challans 1 0 0 1 -2 0
162 Forbach 1 0 0 1 -2 0
163 Atlas Paillade 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Avion 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Plédran 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 Longuenesse 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Pierrelatte 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Le Poinconnet 1 0 0 1 -2 0
169 SA Beaumont 1 0 0 1 -3 0
170 Porto Portugais Amiens 1 0 0 1 -3 0
171 Blagnac 1 0 0 1 -3 0
172 Auch 1 0 0 1 -3 0
173 Bayonne 1 0 0 1 -3 0
174 France Aizenay 1 0 0 1 -3 0
175 ASS Still Mutzig 1 0 0 1 -3 0
176 Olympique de Villefontaine 1 0 0 1 -3 0
177 Magenta 1 0 0 1 -3 0
178 Auby 1 0 0 1 -3 0
179 Les Bleuets 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 Montreal-la-Cluse 1 0 0 1 -3 0
181 Premontre 1 0 0 1 -3 0
182 Saint-Amand 1 0 0 1 -3 0
183 Pirae 1 0 0 1 -4 0
184 Avenir Sportif de Gouzon 1 0 0 1 -4 0
185 Cambrai 1 0 0 1 -4 0
186 Saint-Renan 1 0 0 1 -4 0
187 Thionville Lusitanos 1 0 0 1 -4 0
188 GSA Tomblaine 1 0 0 1 -5 0
189 OS Aire-Sur-La-Lys 1 0 0 1 -5 0
190 US Chateau-Malo 1 0 0 1 -6 0
191 Le Cellier Mauves 1 0 0 1 -6 0
192 Camon 1 0 0 1 -7 0
193 Stade Quimperlois 1 0 0 1 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Concarneau Nantes
15′
B. Deuff 0–1
M. Abline
0–2 N. Cozza
own goal
18′
23′
Y. El Arabi 0–3
M. Abline
38′
F. Centonze 0–4
1–4 A. Samoura
45′
Half-time 1–4
47′
🟨 Kelvin Amian
51′
M. Abline 1–5
F. Centonze
S. Inquel 🔁
↦ R. Amede Kabongo
57′
58′
M. Abline 1–6
Y. El Arabi
G. Gbelle 🔁
↦ D. Seba
65′
O. Daf 🔁
↦ J. Tell
66′
69′
🔁 J. Lepenant
↦ D. Tabibou
Guillaume Jannez 🟨
73′
2–6 Y. Soukouna
O. Daf
74′
75′
🟨 Deiver Machado
Y. El Khemiri 🔁
↦ M. Picouleau
81′
81′
🔁 F. Coquelin
↦ Y. El Arabi
G. Tutu 🔁
↦ B. Etcheverria
82′
89′
🟨 Fabien Centonze
95′
🔁 M. Acapandie
↦ F. Centonze
Full-time 2–6

Line-ups

Concarneau

5-4-1
1 P. Patron
5 B. Etcheverria D
6 D. Seba D
4 G. Jannez D
2 T. Sinquin D
3 R. Amede Kabongo D
11 Y. Soukouna M
10 L. Goujon M
8 M. Picouleau M
7 A. Samoura M
9 J. Tell F
Bench (9)
16 V. Viot
12 Y. El Khemiri
13 S. Inquel
14 G. Gbelle
15 M. Le Bonniec
17 O. Daf
18 G. Sylvestre
19 G. Hocquet
20 G. Tutu

Coach: Stephane Rossi

Nantes

3-4-3
1 A. Lopes G
2 K. Amian D
4 U. Radakovic D
3 N. Cozza D
5 F. Centonze M
8 J. Mwanga M
6 B. Deuff M
11 D. Machado M
7 D. Tabibou F
9 Y. El Arabi F
10 M. Abline F
Bench (9)
16 P. Carlgren
12 M. Acapandie
13 F. Coquelin
14 A. Camara
15 M. Lahdo
17 J. Lepenant
18 Kwon Hyeok-Kyu
19 T. Tati
20 S. Doucoure

Coach: Vahid Halilhodzic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Gaillouste · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.