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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Metz

T T T S S

1–2

Full-time

Lille

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

27%

47%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,13 xG 0,78

29% Possession 71%

5 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 16. · Lille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	20	10	1	+47	+27.5	70
2	Monaco	30	17	7	6	+18	+8.8	58
3	Brest	30	15	8	7	+15	+9.4	53
4	Lille	30	14	10	6	+17	+13.7	52
5	Nice	30	13	9	8	+9	+12.4	48
6	Lens	30	13	7	10	+7	+2.5	46
7	Rennes	30	11	9	10	+8	+8.8	42
8	Marseille	30	10	11	9	+8	+17.9	41
9	Lyon	30	12	5	13	-10	-5.3	41
10	Reims	30	11	7	12	-4	+2.1	40
11	Montpellier	31	9	11	11	-4	+1.8	38
12	Toulouse	30	9	10	11	-3	-7.5	37
13	Strasbourg	30	9	9	12	-8	-1.2	36
14	Nantes	31	9	5	17	-20	-15.3	32
15	Le Havre	31	6	11	14	-11	-13.1	29
16	Metz	30	8	5	17	-18	-19.1	29
17	Lorient	30	6	8	16	-23	-17.7	26
18	Clermont	30	4	10	16	-28	-25.6	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	15	11	3	1	+21	+17.8	36
2	Paris SG	16	9	6	1	+22	+19.8	33
3	Marseille	15	8	6	1	+15	+15.8	30
4	Brest	15	8	5	2	+11	+13.1	29
5	Nice	15	8	4	3	+10	+9.9	28
6	Monaco	15	8	3	4	+9	+9.0	27
7	Lens	15	8	3	4	+7	+6.1	27
8	Rennes	15	7	3	5	+9	+11.8	24
9	Strasbourg	15	6	3	6	+0	+3.0	21
10	Reims	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.4	21
11	Lyon	15	5	4	6	-6	+1.4	19
12	Montpellier	16	3	9	4	-1	+7.7	18
13	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-2	+2.2	17
14	Toulouse	15	3	7	5	+0	+4.0	16
15	Lorient	15	3	4	8	-8	-5.9	13
16	Metz	14	3	3	8	-6	-2.6	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	-7.7	12
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-15	-8.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+25	+7.8	37
2	Monaco	15	9	4	2	+9	-0.2	31
3	Brest	15	7	3	5	+4	-3.7	24
4	Lyon	15	7	1	7	-4	-6.6	22
5	Toulouse	15	6	3	6	-3	-11.5	21
6	Nice	15	5	5	5	-1	+2.5	20
7	Montpellier	15	6	2	7	-3	-5.9	20
8	Nantes	15	6	2	7	-8	-7.6	20
9	Lens	15	5	4	6	+0	-3.6	19
10	Reims	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
11	Rennes	15	4	6	5	-1	-3.0	18
12	Metz	16	5	2	9	-12	-16.5	17
13	Lille	15	3	7	5	-4	-4.1	16
14	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-8	-4.2	15
15	Lorient	15	3	4	8	-15	-11.8	13
16	Le Havre	16	1	9	6	-9	-15.3	12
17	Marseille	15	2	5	8	-7	+2.1	11
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-13	-17.1	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.