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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lille

T U U U S

2–1

Full-time

Troyes

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Troyes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 28%

31%

25%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

56%

38%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 12. · Troyes 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+20	41
2	Marseille	16	8	5	3	+9	29
3	Rennes	16	8	4	4	+13	28
4	Nice	16	8	4	4	+13	28
5	Lens	16	7	5	4	+7	26
6	Brest	17	6	6	5	+2	24
7	Strasbourg	16	6	5	5	+9	23
8	Monaco	16	6	5	5	+3	23
9	Angers	16	5	7	4	+2	22
10	Montpellier	16	6	4	6	+1	22
11	Lyon	15	6	4	5	+0	22
12	Lille	16	5	6	5	-2	21
13	Nantes	16	5	4	7	-1	19
14	Reims	16	4	7	5	-1	19
15	Troyes	16	4	4	8	-8	16
16	Lorient	16	3	6	7	-12	15
17	Clermont	16	3	5	8	-12	14
18	Bordeaux	16	2	7	7	-13	13
19	Metz	16	2	6	8	-15	12
20	St Etienne	16	2	6	8	-15	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+13	22
2	Rennes	9	6	1	2	+12	19
3	Strasbourg	9	5	2	2	+13	17
4	Lens	8	4	3	1	+9	15
5	Lyon	8	4	3	1	+6	15
6	Marseille	9	4	3	2	+6	15
7	Montpellier	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Nantes	8	4	1	3	+3	13
9	Angers	8	4	1	3	+1	13
10	Brest	8	3	3	2	+4	12
11	Nice	8	3	3	2	+4	12
12	Monaco	8	3	3	2	+3	12
13	Lille	7	3	3	1	+0	12
14	Lorient	7	3	2	2	+0	11
15	Troyes	8	2	3	3	+0	9
16	Reims	7	2	3	2	+0	9
17	Clermont	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	St Etienne	8	1	4	3	-5	7
19	Bordeaux	8	1	3	4	-4	6
20	Metz	8	0	4	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	1	1	+7	19
2	Nice	8	5	1	2	+9	16
3	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Brest	9	3	3	3	-2	12
5	Monaco	8	3	2	3	+0	11
6	Lens	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	Reims	9	2	4	3	-1	10
8	Angers	8	1	6	1	+1	9
9	Rennes	7	2	3	2	+1	9
10	Lille	9	2	3	4	-2	9
11	Montpellier	8	2	2	4	-4	8
12	Metz	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Lyon	7	2	1	4	-6	7
14	Troyes	8	2	1	5	-8	7
15	Bordeaux	8	1	4	3	-9	7
16	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Strasbourg	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	St Etienne	8	1	2	5	-10	5
19	Clermont	8	1	2	5	-11	5
20	Lorient	9	0	4	5	-12	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.