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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Newcastle

T U U T U

1–0

Full-time

Burnley

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 4%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 71%

79%

62%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

1,1

Conceded

2,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

19 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 1

11 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 20. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+26	33
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+21	32
3	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+31	31
4	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Arsenal	14	7	2	5	-3	23
6	Tottenham	13	7	1	5	-4	22
7	Man United	14	6	3	5	+0	21
8	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+0	21
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	-2	19
10	Leicester	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Crystal Palace	14	3	7	4	-1	16
12	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-2	16
13	Aston Villa	14	5	1	8	-4	16
14	Everton	14	4	3	7	-7	15
15	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-7	15
16	Leeds	14	3	6	5	-7	15
17	Watford	14	4	1	9	-7	13
18	Burnley	13	1	7	5	-6	10
19	Norwich	14	2	4	8	-20	10
20	Newcastle	14	0	7	7	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	5	1	1	+14	16
2	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
3	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
4	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+0	15
5	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+14	14
6	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
8	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+2	10
9	Southampton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Man United	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
12	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Wolves	7	3	1	3	-1	10
14	Leeds	7	2	3	2	-2	9
15	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Watford	7	2	1	4	-5	7
18	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
19	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Newcastle	7	0	4	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+18	16
3	Man City	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	Brighton	7	2	4	1	+0	10
8	Brentford	7	2	3	2	-1	9
9	Leicester	7	2	3	2	-2	9
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-9	7
12	Watford	7	2	0	5	-2	6
13	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
14	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-14	5
19	Burnley	7	0	4	3	-6	4
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.