Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Frosinone
Ternana
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Brescia
|
15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | +10 | 30 |
| 2 |
Pisa
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 29 |
| 3 |
Lecce
|
15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |
Benevento
|
15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |
Monza
|
15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |
Ascoli
|
15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 |
Perugia
|
16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | +3 | 25 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 24 |
| 9 |
Cremonese
|
15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |
Cittadella
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +0 | 22 |
| 11 |
Reggina
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 22 |
| 12 |
Como
|
15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 21 |
| 13 |
Ternana
|
15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +2 | 21 |
| 14 |
Parma
|
15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | +1 | 17 |
| 16 |
Cosenza
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 |
| 17 | Alessandria | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 14 |
| 18 |
Crotone
|
15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 19 |
Vicenza
|
16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | -16 | 7 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | -18 | 7 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Cremonese
Frosinone
Frosinone
Frosinone
Lecce
Benevento
Frosinone
Frosinone
Crotone
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.