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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Chelsea

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Brentford

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,8

Scored

3,2

2,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 54%

60%

47%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 80%

73%

87%

Average goals

3,5

3,9

Scored

2,3

2,1

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,23 xG 1,61

62% Possession 38%

26 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 2. · Brentford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+18	+16.6	36
2	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+17	+10.6	31
3	Arsenal	16	8	6	2	+14	+13.0	30
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+2	+2.5	28
5	Man City	16	8	3	5	+5	+6.4	27
6	Aston Villa	16	7	4	5	-1	+6.7	25
7	Bournemouth	15	7	3	5	+3	+12.5	24
8	Fulham	16	6	6	4	+2	+1.3	24
9	Brighton	16	6	6	4	+1	-2.2	24
10	Brentford	15	7	2	6	+3	-2.0	23
11	Newcastle	16	6	5	5	+2	+4.8	23
12	Man United	16	6	4	6	+2	+0.1	22
13	Tottenham	15	6	2	7	+12	+5.3	20
14	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-8	-4.6	18
15	Crystal Palace	16	3	7	6	-4	-0.2	16
16	Everton	15	3	6	6	-7	-5.0	15
17	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-13	-17.9	14
18	Ipswich	16	2	6	8	-12	-17.9	12
19	Wolves	16	2	3	11	-16	-10.6	9
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	8	7	1	0	+12	+7.0	22
2	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+10	+9.6	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	3	0	+11	+11.5	18
4	Man City	8	5	1	2	+4	+7.5	16
5	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.5	15
6	Newcastle	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.6	14
7	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+3	+4.1	14
8	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+1	+0.6	14
9	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+9	+5.0	13
10	Bournemouth	7	4	1	2	+4	+7.5	13
11	Man United	8	4	1	3	+2	+0.7	13
12	Brighton	8	3	4	1	+1	+1.3	13
13	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+4	+7.0	12
14	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.2	10
15	Everton	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.8	9
16	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-1	-7.6	9
17	Crystal Palace	8	1	4	3	-4	+1.2	7
18	Ipswich	8	0	4	4	-6	-5.7	4
19	Wolves	8	1	1	6	-8	-5.7	4
20	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-9	-10.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+13	+3.7	19
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
3	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	-1	-1.6	14
4	Arsenal	8	3	3	2	+3	+1.4	12
5	Man City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.1	11
6	Brighton	8	3	2	3	+0	-3.5	11
7	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
8	Fulham	8	2	4	2	+1	+0.7	10
9	Aston Villa	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.8	10
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.4	9
11	Man United	8	2	3	3	+0	-0.6	9
12	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.1	9
13	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.4	8
14	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-6	-12.2	8
15	Tottenham	7	2	1	4	+3	+0.3	7
16	Everton	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.2	6
17	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-8	-4.9	5
18	Leicester	8	1	2	5	-12	-10.2	5
19	Brentford	7	0	1	6	-9	-9.0	1
20	Southampton	8	0	1	7	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.