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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Chelsea

U T T T T

0–2

Full-time

Brentford

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,2

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 32%

32%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

39%

47%

Both score Ø 49%

42%

56%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,27 xG 1,15

73% Possession 27%

15 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 11. · Brentford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	32	23	6	3	+43	+12.3	75
2	Man City	30	22	4	4	+50	+16.9	70
3	Newcastle	31	16	11	4	+29	+8.5	59
4	Man United	30	18	5	7	+9	+3.1	59
5	Aston Villa	33	16	6	11	+5	-1.3	54
6	Tottenham	32	16	5	11	+7	-1.4	53
7	Liverpool	31	14	8	9	+21	+7.7	50
8	Brighton	30	14	7	9	+15	+15.5	49
9	Fulham	32	13	6	13	+1	-6.0	45
10	Brentford	32	10	14	8	+5	+3.4	44
11	Chelsea	31	10	9	12	-3	+3.2	39
12	Crystal Palace	33	9	10	14	-11	-3.7	37
13	Wolves	33	10	7	16	-15	-6.4	37
14	West Ham	31	9	7	15	-8	-0.5	34
15	Bournemouth	32	9	6	17	-32	-6.5	33
16	Leeds	33	7	9	17	-21	-9.2	30
17	Nott'm Forest	33	7	9	17	-31	-14.0	30
18	Leicester	33	8	5	20	-13	-3.1	29
19	Everton	32	6	10	16	-22	-8.5	28
20	Southampton	32	6	6	20	-29	-9.9	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	15	13	1	1	+35	+9.9	40
2	Arsenal	16	12	3	1	+24	+9.7	39
3	Man United	15	11	3	1	+19	+7.6	36
4	Liverpool	15	10	4	1	+26	+9.9	34
5	Tottenham	16	11	0	5	+13	+2.4	33
6	Newcastle	15	9	5	1	+19	+6.9	32
7	Aston Villa	17	10	2	5	+10	+3.1	32
8	Brentford	16	7	7	2	+13	+3.5	28
9	Wolves	17	8	2	7	-2	+0.4	26
10	Fulham	16	7	4	5	+1	-0.5	25
11	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
12	Nott'm Forest	17	6	6	5	+1	-6.8	24
13	Chelsea	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.9	23
14	West Ham	16	6	4	6	+0	+2.7	22
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	6	5	-5	-3.7	21
16	Leeds	17	5	6	6	-8	-1.9	21
17	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-8	-2.4	19
18	Everton	16	5	3	8	-6	-0.6	18
19	Leicester	16	4	3	9	-2	-1.0	15
20	Southampton	16	2	4	10	-15	-4.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+19	+2.6	36
2	Man City	15	9	3	3	+15	+7.0	30
3	Newcastle	16	7	6	3	+10	+1.6	27
4	Brighton	16	7	4	5	+4	+6.6	25
5	Man United	15	7	2	6	-10	-4.5	23
6	Aston Villa	16	6	4	6	-5	-4.4	22
7	Fulham	16	6	2	8	+0	-5.6	20
8	Tottenham	16	5	5	6	-6	-3.8	20
9	Liverpool	16	4	4	8	-5	-2.3	16
10	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	+0.0	16
11	Chelsea	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.6	16
12	Brentford	16	3	7	6	-8	-0.2	16
13	Leicester	17	4	2	11	-11	-2.1	14
14	Southampton	16	4	2	10	-14	-5.1	14
15	Bournemouth	16	4	2	10	-24	-4.1	14
16	West Ham	15	3	3	9	-8	-3.1	12
17	Wolves	16	2	5	9	-13	-6.8	11
18	Everton	16	1	7	8	-16	-8.0	10
19	Leeds	16	2	3	11	-13	-7.3	9
20	Nott'm Forest	16	1	3	12	-32	-7.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.