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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Man United

U S S U S

4–0

Full-time

Everton

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,5

0,8

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,07 xG 0,58

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 13. · Everton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	10	1	1	+16	+13.1	31
2	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+8.0	25
3	Brighton	13	6	5	2	+5	-1.9	23
4	Man City	12	7	2	3	+5	+8.6	23
5	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+9	+6.4	22
6	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+3	+3.5	22
7	Brentford	13	6	2	5	+3	-0.3	20
8	Tottenham	12	6	1	5	+14	+8.9	19
9	Aston Villa	12	5	4	3	+0	+5.1	19
10	Newcastle	13	5	4	4	+0	+0.8	19
11	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+1	+7.7	18
12	Fulham	12	5	3	4	+0	+4.1	18
13	Man United	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.4	16
14	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-7	-5.8	15
15	Everton	12	2	5	5	-7	-3.7	11
16	Leicester	13	2	4	7	-11	-12.3	10
17	Crystal Palace	13	1	6	6	-7	-2.6	9
18	Wolves	13	2	3	8	-10	-10.9	9
19	Ipswich	13	1	6	6	-11	-14.7	9
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-15	-13.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	7	6	1	0	+10	+7.2	19
2	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+8	+6.0	15
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.5	14
4	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	+2.7	13
5	Man City	6	4	1	1	+2	+7.1	13
6	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+10	+5.8	12
7	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.7	11
8	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.7	10
9	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.9	10
10	Fulham	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.3	10
11	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.6	10
12	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.1	9
13	Chelsea	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.5	9
14	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
15	Everton	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
16	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.3	6
17	Leicester	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.7	5
18	Ipswich	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.6	4
19	Southampton	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.8	4
20	Wolves	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+8	+7.1	16
2	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	-0.1	13
3	Arsenal	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.4	11
4	Nott'm Forest	6	3	2	1	+1	+0.8	11
5	Man City	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.5	10
6	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.5	10
7	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.0	10
8	Newcastle	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.1	9
9	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.8	8
10	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.0	8
11	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-2	-4.1	8
12	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	+4	+3.1	7
13	Man United	6	1	3	2	+1	+0.2	6
14	Wolves	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.2	5
15	Everton	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.6	5
16	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-7	-12.1	5
17	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-8	-6.6	5
18	Crystal Palace	6	0	3	3	-3	-3.9	3
19	Brentford	6	0	1	5	-7	-7.6	1
20	Southampton	7	0	1	6	-10	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.