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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Estoril

T U S T U

2–1

Full-time

Famalicao

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

45%

36%

Both score Ø 32%

27%

36%

Average goals

2,2

1,9

Scored

0,7

1,1

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,42 xG 1,04

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 12. · Famalicao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	11	0	1	+33	+25.2	33
2	Porto	11	9	0	2	+20	+14.9	27
3	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+21	+12.8	25
4	Santa Clara	12	8	0	4	+3	+7.9	24
5	Sp Braga	11	6	2	3	+8	+5.5	20
6	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+1	-0.2	18
7	Famalicao	11	4	5	2	+3	-3.6	17
8	Moreirense	12	5	2	5	+0	+3.2	17
9	Rio Ave	12	4	3	5	-9	-8.3	15
10	Casa Pia	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.4	13
11	Gil Vicente	11	2	4	5	-5	-4.5	10
12	Estoril	11	2	4	5	-8	-11.8	10
13	Boavista	12	2	4	6	-8	-1.4	10
14	AVS	11	2	4	5	-10	-4.7	10
15	Nacional	11	2	3	6	-9	-1.8	9
16	Estrela	12	2	3	7	-11	-8.2	9
17	Farense	12	2	2	8	-12	-12.1	8
18	Arouca	11	2	2	7	-13	-10.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+19	+9.9	18
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	+14.5	18
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	0	1	+12	+11.3	15
4	Santa Clara	6	5	0	1	+3	+7.5	15
5	Rio Ave	6	3	3	0	+3	+3.4	12
6	Moreirense	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.1	11
7	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+4	+5.1	10
8	Guimaraes	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.4	10
9	Famalicao	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.6	9
10	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
11	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.3	8
12	Estrela	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.8	8
13	Estoril	6	2	2	2	-2	-6.8	8
14	AVS	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.1	8
15	Nacional	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.2	7
16	Farense	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.7	6
17	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
18	Boavista	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+21	+13.8	18
2	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+4	+0.4	10
3	Porto	5	3	0	2	+5	+0.4	9
4	Santa Clara	6	3	0	3	+0	+0.5	9
5	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.5	9
6	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.0	8
7	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.7	8
8	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.8	7
9	Moreirense	7	2	0	5	-4	+3.0	6
10	Casa Pia	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.7	5
11	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.5	4
12	Rio Ave	6	1	0	5	-12	-11.7	3
13	Nacional	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.5	2
14	AVS	5	0	2	3	-6	-1.6	2
15	Farense	6	0	2	4	-6	-8.5	2
16	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.9	2
17	Gil Vicente	6	0	2	4	-9	-6.0	2
18	Estrela	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.