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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Man United

S S T S T

2–0

Full-time

Everton

U T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

52%

30%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

67%

48%

Both score Ø 47%

52%

41%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,72 xG 1,61

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 23

8 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 10

6 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 8

6 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 6. · Everton 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	19	6	2	+39	+27.6	63
2	Man City	27	19	5	3	+35	+31.0	62
3	Arsenal	27	19	4	4	+45	+37.5	61
4	Aston Villa	27	17	4	6	+22	+12.3	55
5	Tottenham	26	15	5	6	+16	+1.9	50
6	Man United	27	14	2	11	-2	-5.7	44
7	West Ham	27	12	6	9	-4	-12.9	42
8	Newcastle	27	12	4	11	+12	+3.0	40
9	Brighton	27	10	9	8	+5	+7.3	39
10	Wolves	27	11	5	11	-3	-8.4	38
11	Chelsea	26	10	6	10	+1	+8.9	36
12	Fulham	27	10	5	12	-3	-13.3	35
13	Everton	27	8	7	12	-8	+3.8	31
14	Bournemouth	26	8	7	11	-12	-4.6	31
15	Crystal Palace	27	7	7	13	-15	-8.8	28
16	Brentford	27	7	5	15	-11	+2.7	26
17	Nott'm Forest	27	6	6	15	-15	-7.3	24
18	Luton	26	5	5	16	-17	-21.6	20
19	Burnley	27	3	4	20	-35	-23.4	13
20	Sheffield United	27	3	4	20	-50	-29.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+26	+26.0	35
2	Man City	14	10	4	0	+22	+15.5	34
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	+22.3	32
4	Aston Villa	13	10	1	2	+20	+12.7	31
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+10	+5.2	30
6	Newcastle	14	9	2	3	+18	+13.7	29
7	Fulham	14	8	1	5	+11	+2.4	25
8	Brighton	13	6	6	1	+11	+8.4	24
9	West Ham	13	6	4	3	+3	-6.4	22
10	Man United	13	7	1	5	-1	+1.5	22
11	Wolves	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.9	21
12	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
13	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-5	+2.5	16
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-1	+0.8	15
15	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.3	15
16	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
17	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-6	-1.4	13
18	Luton	14	3	2	9	-4	-2.7	11
19	Sheffield United	14	2	2	10	-30	-14.2	8
20	Burnley	14	1	2	11	-21	-7.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	9	2	3	+23	+15.2	29
2	Man City	13	9	1	3	+13	+15.5	28
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	14	7	3	4	+2	-0.4	24
5	Man United	14	7	1	6	-1	-7.2	22
6	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
7	West Ham	14	6	2	6	-7	-6.5	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
9	Everton	13	5	3	5	-5	-5.2	18
10	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
11	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-3	-5.6	17
12	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-6	-1.0	15
13	Crystal Palace	14	3	4	7	-14	-9.5	13
14	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.7	11
15	Brentford	13	3	1	9	-6	+0.1	10
16	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-14	-15.7	10
17	Luton	12	2	3	7	-13	-18.8	9
18	Nott'm Forest	13	2	3	8	-13	-8.6	9
19	Burnley	13	2	2	9	-14	-16.4	8
20	Sheffield United	13	1	2	10	-20	-15.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.